Euro Weather Model Analysis
Look folks. I will say it right from the start. Believe me when I say that if this were worth getting excited about, I would tell you. However right now based on the kind of winter we had, and based on the fact that the European upper air is somewhat different in the fine details, and given that every time the model shows a bullish upper air pattern this early, it winds up being a non event. If I see something that changes that viewpoint, you will be the first to know. If the Euro model were doing what the GFS model and the Canadian model were doing I would be on the other side of the argument. But it is not so I’m not.
Euro Weather Model Analysis EURO MODEL & GFS MODEL NEXT SUNDAY
The Euro model and the GFS model at 168 hrs or a week from today are very similar. Both show deep troughs along 90. Both show a low out at 50N 50W and in fact the European has a deeper feature there which would be bullish for an east coast storm. Both have strong ridges in the east. So what is the problem?
Euro Weather Model Analysis EURO MODEL & GFS MODEL NEXT MONDAY
The problem lies beyond this time frame. The GFS model has a wrapped up cut off low just offshore Now this is all fine and dandy except that every single time this winter the model showed this it has been wrong. The problem has been the mistiming of energy and the ultimate strength of such energy. The Euro model on the other hand seems to handle this the way much of the systems this winter have behaved. It has a much less developed upper air feature that simply moves along to the east. This time of year strength is very very important. You almost need to have the system to be very dynamic to compensate for the time of year and the overall warming of the atmosphere. The Euro model surface would take a low to our west with a cold front moving through here at some point.
Euro Weather Model Analysis EURO MODEL SURFACE NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
You can see above how the Euro model resolves this at the surface. The dominance of the northern stream has a primary low near Erie Pennsylvania that moves into Canada as a deep storm. The GFS model is just as deep with the surface low but because the southern part of the upper air feature is stronger and more dominant, it has a wrapped up noreaster near Montauk
GFS MODEL NEXT MONDAY
The bottom line is that until the Euro model decides to shift emphasis to a stronger southern stream feature, or at least makes the southern part of the trough more important, I can’t get worked up over this. If this were a winter where we had storm after storm, that would be one thing. But this has been a winter where the models have eventually come together on a stronger northern stream with no cut off lows nearby. Nothing has really changed in the overall large scale pattern. Why should this system be any different?
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