- Tropics Busy For Late May Early June
Tropics Busy For Late May Early JuneThe Atlantic hurricane season is off to a fast start with the first tropical storm Arthur already in the books. While there isn't anything important going on at the moment there are a few things that are worth looking at. The first one is a weak low and trough that is over Florida and is producing quite a bit of cloud cover over Florida and the Southeast US along with disorganized scattered showers. If we were deeper into the hurricane season or if this were more of an August set up, it might be more interesting. Weak low pressure is over Florida and about to move offshore. By this time tomorrow it will be along the South Carolina coast and moving northward. No development is forecast though the National Hurricane Center does hold a low 20% chance something could come of it. Upper air winds are strong and that is unfavorable for development. I mention this because some of the clouds and showers are destined for us on Thursday. It will be a minor inconvenience and nothing more.
REGIONAL RADARWatching the loop of the GFS which carries into the middle of next week shows this spiraling mass of moisture with falling pressures in the Northwest Caribbean. If something forms this time of year, this is the area where you would might see something for late May and early June. It is something to watch for the time being. One thing that strikes me is the early activity may be a signal of an active hurricane season ahead. We are seeing above normal sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Basin. We are also seeing the development of a "La Nina" signature across the equatorial Pacific. Below normal water temperatures in this region correlate with La Nina conditions. Upper air winds are impacted on the Atlantic side where they are light (less wind shear) and more favorable for tropical storm formation (or least less hostile). The La Nina seems to be the basis for above normal hurricane activity for the Atlantic side. What this doesn't tell you is when the storms come. It doesn't necessarily mean we will see storms early. Even the development of Arthur last week is not an indicator of an active season. However the puzzle pieces seem to be pointing to a busy summer and fall.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPSPlease note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.