warm october november

WARM OCTOBER NOVEMBER EQUALS WARMER WINTER?

WARM OCTOBER NOVEMBER EQUALS WARMER WINTER?

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WARM OCTOBER NOVEMBER EQUALS WARMER WINTER?

Winter weather lovers are wondering what if anything the warm October means going forward with regards to the winter. The stats on this really don’t have much value however when you combine a warmer than average October with a warmer than average November you do get some evidence that it leads to a warmer winter with below average snowfall

THANKS TO MY FRIEND TONY GIGI FOR THESE STATISTICS

WARM OCTOBER NOVEMBER EQUALS WARMER WINTERS LESS SNOW

warm october november

In Philadelphia at least the statistics going back to 1900 are rather convincing.  Looking at the warmer October November combinations  of which there are 10 of then, it has resulted in below average snowfall in 9 of the 10 winters. With regards to temperatures it produced only 2 winters where the temperatures were below average with one right at average. Granted there are other factors involved and the sample is rather small with just 10 winters meeting the cut. 1 winter had a strong el nino and 2 had strong la nina conditions. The rest were neutral with a nino/nina bias in both directions. Also we are talking about 1 specific point here and not an entire region. For example last winter which was warmer than average did produce above average snowfall for the winter if you resided north of 40 degrees north and through Northern Pennsylvania northeast to New England. It also doesn’t mean there can’t be the one big snowstorm that drives the entire winter snowfall like in 2015-16 and the blizzard of 2016. It is food for thought going forward as we see 70 degree readings in the forecast for the next 2 days and probably next Monday.

JET STREAM PATTERN NEXT WEEK

warmer october november

The pattern seems to be setting up with more variability going forward. Weather models are trending toward a colder look next week with troughing in the East and off the west coast with a generally colder look to it. Whether this is another temporary shift or something that lasts longer remains to be seen.

ESCAPE THE WINTER WITH A CRUISE!

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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