Snow Threat 2 Sunday Blocking Strength Remains Key
Snow Threat 2 Sunday Blocking Strength Remains Key
As we move further out in time variations in weather models grows wider. Like the first weather system Friday, the developing block in Greenland will remain key. If the block is too strong that will bring cold dry air into the Northeast and suppress any weather systems coming out of the Plains further south. If the block is weaker the storm system will be further north. The European and GFS both have different views on the strength of such models. Also key will be the strength of the short wave trough moving across the Ohio Valley.
Both models handle the block pretty much the same way so attention then focuses on the upper air disturbance that is moving across the Ohio Valley. Here is where the differences lie today where the European has a very fractured look to the short wave trough while the GFS has a deeper (more intense) system. The result is that the GFS is further north while the European is suppressed and further south.
While we can’t see the precipitation on the European maps we can see the surface with the high in upstate NY. That cold dry air suppresses snow to where the northern edge gets into Southernmost New Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania with the heaviest snow well south. Now we are 6 days away and the tendency this winter is for systems to correct northward as we draw closer. We will be watching for this going forward. As far as the first snow threat for Friday here is JOESTRADAMUS’s post on the first system.
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