snow storm

Snow Storms Remain Unlikely Until Arctic Jet Relaxes

Snow Storms Remain Unlikely Until Arctic Jet Relaxes

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Snow Storms Remain Unlikely Until Arctic Jet Relaxes

Yesterday’s European model set the internet ablaze with visions of epic burials. The fact that anyone would react that way is questionable considering that it would be totally against the dominance of the arctic jet in the current weather pattern. All the weather models over the last couple of weeks have had trouble with the strength and magnitude of the arctic jet which has been dominating the pattern completely and thoroughly. Let’s look at the problem.

EUROPEAN MODEL YESTERDAY FOR NEXT THURSDAY 01/04/2017

snow storms

snow storms

Above we have yesterday’s European. The jet stream map above yields the surface map below which had a huge storm just to our east. This would have meant a major snowstorm for the northeast. But the model made a big error in that it continues to mistake the timing of any breakdown of the arctic jet to the north.

GFS JET STREAM TODAY 12/29/2017

snow storm

The jet stream at the moment as depicted by the GFS model shows the unrelenting flow from the Arctic to West Central Canada and then overwhelming the East. There is no room here for any storms and the flow across the US is bone dry. The Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and even the Pacific remain cut off. The Euopean forecasted this radical change by how it rearranged the chess pieces as they move around.

EUROPEAN MODEL TODAY’S RUN FOR THURSDAY JAN 4 2018

snow storm

snow storm

Here is today’s European which lines up with the GFS and Canadian models. Very simply the northern jet doesn’t get out of the way fast enough. The deep trough that develops forms much further to the east and the surface low resulting from this is closer to Bermuda than North Carolina. Until the northern jet either gets out of the way or relaxes, we will continue to see only weak systems coming through like the one we are getting on Saturday. When will the arctic jet relax?

snow storm

Since the GFS has handled the northern jet stream and its impact on US weather far better than the European and Canadian we think it may have the right idea with no real break in the arctic jet for the next 10 days at least. The European and Canadian would argue otherwise but we have little confidence that those models have a handle on this. Bitter cold weather will continue in general for the next 10 days with some brief trips up from extreme lows. One of those trips comes tomorrow with the weak weather system moving through and another may come next Thursday. Bitter air will be here Sunday into Wednesday and again next Friday into next weekend. Unless we get a big surprise and the models are completely wrong on next Thursday, the weather will be relatively uneventful other than the frigid temperatures.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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