Rain Sunday Afternoon Into Monday Night Ice Storm Possibility Upstate NY New England
The best part of the weekend was definitely Saturday and that is drawing to a close. We had a fair amount of sunshine though there were some high clouds in the mix. Our satellite picture shows the high cloudiness overhead but with large breaks in the cloud cover. Skies are clear for now as you go north and east into New England. To the west we are beginning to see a heavier overcast moving east. All of this is due to a storm heading northeast through the Plains and eventually that low will wind up in Southern Minnesota. Temperatures managed upper 40s to mid 50s today for highs. Overnight temperatures will settle in the 30s. Clouds will slowly increase later tonight but no rain is forecast overnight into Sunday morning.
If you are travelling northward up upstate NY and northeast into interior Central New England be advised that winter weather is going to be an issue here. This includes the Catskills and the Berkshires. Cold air from Canada will bleed southward at the lowest levels of the atmosphere and a significant ice storm is possible. Winter Storm Watch is posted for Northern Connecticut north of Route 84 into Massachusetts. Winter Storm Watch is also posted for the Catskills from Sullivan County NY north and northwest.
Ice is going to be a serious concern as precipitation arrives later Sunday into Sunday night. While some warming is possible colder air will return later Monday as the primary low to the west dies out and redevelops off the coast of New Jersey Monday night into Tuesday morning. One half inch or more of ice accretion is forecast which is capable of producing down trees and power lines rather easily.
Rain is going to be the main driver everywhere else from this complex system. It develops from west to east from Pennsylvania to Southern New England late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon and then continues on and off into Monday night. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches seem quite likely out of this. Sunday’s temperatures will be in the 40s. Areas up the Hudson Valley and northeast in Connecticut north of Route 84 are going to struggle in the 30s. Cold air from the north will bleed south and get trapped in valleys creating the potential for icing.
You can see on the late afternoon NAM model run how the low in the Great Lakes can’t move northeastward into Canada. This is due to some blocking to the northeast that is forcing this low to redevelop to the east. This prolongs the departure of this system until Tuesday morning. In the meantime Monday will see a wide range in temperatures. Southern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey southward will see 50s and even some 60s while Northern New Jersey north and east won’t be much above the low to mid 40s with some areas north of Route 84 in the 30s.
Weather conditions improve slowly New Years Eve with clouds giving way to some sun and a gusty breeze. Highs will be in the 40s. The ball drops on Times Square Tuesday night with temperatures in the 30s. Wednesday New Years Day will be partly sunny with highs just back into the 40s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.