noreaster

Noreaster Threat Grows Larger For Sunday Night Into Tuesday

Noreaster Threat Grows Larger For Sunday Night Into Tuesday

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Noreaster Threat Grows Larger For Sunday Night Into Tuesday

Latest model runs are all pretty similar on the idea of a strong storm moving up the east coast with noreaster conditions beginning Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday. The good news is that the storm is coming mid moon cycle so that will minimize the threat somewhat for coastal flooding though not eliminate it completely. The other piece of good new with this is the rain will be significant on the order of at least several inches which will go a long way in lessening the drought.

NOREASTER RAINFALL FORECAST GFS MODEL

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If everything goes according to plan weather conditions will begin to deteriorate during Sunday afternoon with the strongest winds later Sunday night into Monday evening. The GFS is showing sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots over a large area of the coast.

NOREASTER SURFACE AND WIND FORECAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE

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The strongest winds will occur during Monday and during the peak time into Monday afternoon the GFS model shows those strong winds from Delaware to Southern New England. Gusts are likely to be over 50 mph along coastal areas.

NOREASTER GFS MODEL WIND FORECAST MONDAY 1PM

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Unlike the Blizzard of 2016 which happened on the same date last year snow is not an issue for us. However there is the issue of colder air trying to bleed southward into upstate New York. The Canadian model is the most bullish with this idea showing heavy snows unusually far to the south. The GFS is much warmer and much less bullish with this idea.

NOREASTER CANADIAN MODEL SNOW FORECAST

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NOREASTER GFS MODEL SNOW FORECAST

Given what is going on I would lean away from the Canadian at this point as it just seems way overdone. The GFS has a much more reasonable look. I would think that given the lack of any real cold air, any snow to the north will probably be elevation driven. Even with the strong high pressing southward, it would seem to me that there just isn’t enough cold air to support the Canadian’s idea. You are going to have to prove it to me at this point.

This noreaster begins to pull away slowly on Tuesday and it may not be until Wednesday before weather conditions generally improve across the area though winds will begin to subside Monday night into Tuesday. We will have more on this during Thursday as we examine the overnight European model.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

          

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