WINTER 2016-2017 NOAA FORECAST OR THE NON FORECAST FORECAST
NOAA WINTER FORECAST OR THE NON FORECAST FORECAST
Having worked for the federal government for a few years (both weather and non weather) one thing I learned is that while their capacity for dealing with the public in a way that average folks can understand, sometimes they overthink things. I think their seasonal forecasts are like this because they basically say nothing when answering the actual question that everyone asks this time of year. “What is the winter going to be like? Also they arent’ exactly saying above or below here, they are actually forecasting the probability of it being above or below.
A FORECAST PROBABILITY OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL IN THE THREE- CLASS SYSTEM IMPLIES A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN THE PROBABILITY OF THE OPPOSITE CLASS AND A FIXED PROBABILITY (AT 33.3%) OF THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS FOR PROBABILITY ANOMALIES UP TO 30%. FOR PROBABILITY ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 30% OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL THE PROBABILITY OF THE OPPOSITE CLASS IS FIXED AT 3.3% (A -30% ANOMALY) AND THE PROBABILITY OF THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS IS REDUCED BY THE EXCESS FORECAST PROBABILITY ANOMALY OVER 30%. NOTE THAT THIS IS ONLY A CRUDE APPROXIMATION OF THE TRUE PROBABILITY OF THE NON-SPECIFIED CLASSES AND IS GENERALLY LESS ACCURATE FOR EXTREME SHIFTS (20% OR MORE) IN THE PROBABILITY ANOMALY OF THE MOST LIKELY CLASS. EXAMPLES: FORECAST PROBABILITY ANOMALIES OF 20%, 30% AND 40% FOR ABOVE NORMAL IMPLY PROBABILITIES FOR ALL THREE CLASSES (ABOVE - NEAR - BELOW) OF 53.3% - 33.3% - 13.3% --- 63.3% - 33.3% - 3.3% AND 73.3% - 23.3% - 3.3% RESPECTIVELY.
So basically what this is says is that for example in the below normal area where it says 30% means that there is a 30% increase chance of below normal temperatures and not that they are necessarily forecasting below normal temperatures. As I get older i have less patience for this sort of stuff. If i got this wrong please let me know.
As far as temperatures go they are forecasting much of the northeast into the Middle Atlantic at equal chances of either being above or below..which means basically nothing. A greater probability of above normal temperatures across the south and below normal across the Plains and Midwest. Okay so what does that really mean? Well from the standpoint of a stretch of weather covering 90 days, not very much. My guess is that it reflects that the pattern overall would be more “normal” certainly as compared to last year which is kind of a no brainer really. There is no super El Nino. Just a weak La Nina for now. The ridge in the east won’t go away so that’s an issue for the time being.
As far as precipitation goes they are indicating below normal across the south and above across the north and for us..yes you guessed it..EQUAL CHANCES. Given the drought pattern still has its grip over the northeast we would need to see that break down. As I read their discussion they based the forecast strongly on La Nina conditions and pretty much nothing else. No mention of conditions in the Arctic, Arctic sea ice, Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and Pacific Oscillations, snow cover…nothing. Something tells me it won’t exactly be that simple.
MENTION JOE CIOFFI AND GET A 5% DISCOUNT
Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.
It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.
Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.
Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!