first snow

Winter 2016-2017 First Snow & Freezes Coming

Winter 2016-2017 First Snow & Freezes Coming

Winter 2016-2017 First Snow & Freezes Coming

With the arrival of a colder weather pattern beginning this weekend it sets the stage for the first snow and the first freezes. The first snow will be in areas well north and west of us and that will come first on Saturday and Saturday night in upstate New York and in Northern New England.

WINTER 2016-2017 FIRST SNOW THIS WEEKEND

first snow

Get familiar with these maps now as winter is coming. Most of what will fall will be just snow showers and accumulations will be favored in elevated areas. But this is how it starts. This is the snowfall forecast ending Sunday evening but again most of this falls Saturday and Saturday night in areas well north of here.

first snow gfs156

For our area it looks like we could see the first freezes for areas north and west of the coast Monday night but more than likely next Tuesday night into Wednesday. This is a result of a reinforcing surge of cold air that comes in late Monday and Monday night into the Northeast.

When we look at the upper pattern sometimes its a good idea to look way upstairs in the stratosphere. We are talking above where planes fly. The GFS model today would lend support to a colder than normal November if this verifies.

first snow

This is what the flow at the highest level of the atmosphere will be a week from today. The flow is controlled by the strengthening polar vortex located between Siberia and Greenland over the pole. Now watch what happens by the end of the period.

first snow

By early November the Vortex is forecast to migrate southeastward to between Greenland and Europe which completely changes the tilt of the low. This opens up a cross polar connection which would be an alley way for cold air to move into the Eastern US. Since there is a lag between what happens upstairs to what happens downstairs, this would suggest that a colder than average pattern will begin to take hold during the middle and latter part of November. Food for though going forward assuming this is correct.

What may be more important is the relative weakness of the polar vortex according to the Atmosphere & Environmental Research Blog.

  • The polar vortex both in the stratosphere and the troposphere look to remain relatively weak for the remainder of October, if this trend continues severe winter weather is likely for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and the eastern United States (US).

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

http://www.fragalalandscape.com/

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WINTER 2016-2017 PART 1 OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 2 ARCTIC SEA ICE AND SIBERIAN SNOW COVER

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

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