white christmas

White Christmas Hopes Dim Models Shift Westward

White Christmas Hopes Dim Models Shift Westward

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White Christmas Hopes Dim Models Shift Westward

Models continuing to move and adjust in both directions but it is beginning to be apparent that the hopes for a White Christmas may be fading as weather models did a rather decisive shift to the west today. Yes there is time for models to maneuver again however the window of opportunity is beginning to close. The European model paints the warmest picture of Christmas Eve and Christmas Day but even today’s GFS model is saying that the brutally cold air moving down from Canada into the United States will push more south than east initially which means that the wave for Sunday and Monday is more likely to pass over or to our west putting us on the side of rain.

GFS OVERNIGHT RUN SUNDAY 1PM JET STREAM

week ahead weather

The map above is last night’s GFS for Sunday Christmas Eve which was a colder run. Notice where the trough position is. Now we have the new GFS model below for 18 hours later on Monday Christmas day and the trough position is actually further west. This means cold air drains southward into the middle of the United States rather than push to the east. The Atlantic ridge is much further west which would either put the stalled front just offshore or just to our west.

NEW GFS RUN MONDAY 7AM JET STREAM

The European run paints an even warmer picture here with the trough axis to the west and even deeper which would suggest a wave running up the Appalachians. A track like this would suggest temperatures on Christmas Day could be in the 50s with rain.

EUROPEAN MODEL MONDAY CHRISTMAS DAY 7AM

white christmas

Eventually the colder air gets here after Christmas and after the wave is long gone. The air mass coming down is brutally cold and temperatures in the upper Midwest could drop to -20 or even -30 degrees next week when the core of the cold air moves over that area. It is hard to believe such an extreme could exist with no cold air in the East but that is the case here if these troughs set up as far west as forecast. Here is the European view of who has a White Christmas.

EUROPEAN SNOWFALL ENDING MONDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF WEATHER.US

white christmas

The GFS being colder has the area further east and even suggests some snow at the start here before a change to rain takes place.

GFS SNOW FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT

white christmas

This model has more snow because it is colder but even here places along the coast would see what ever snow at the start Sunday night washed away. If these model trends continue tonight and Tuesday we can put the White Christmas idea for our area to bed for another year.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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