weather models

Weather Models Winter Pattern Developing Has Forecast Challenges

Weather Models Winter Pattern Developing Has Forecast Challenges

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Weather Models Winter Pattern Developing Has Forecast Challenges

After 2 days of relative consistency in weather models we are seeing some divergence today between the European model & the GFS model. The two models are fairly consistent with the next 5 days which really doesn’t help matters since it is the 5 days that follow that are problematic in the forecast. Both models show a strong cold front approaching next Wednesday and then the models diverge. First things first however are the teleconnection indices that still show that there is potential for something to happen around the December 9-11 time frame.

weather models

The Pacific North America index remains very strongly positive right through the middle of December. The North Atlantic Oscillation rises from a strong negative reading this weekend to near neutral rather rapidly in the Dec 9-11 period. Often times systems tend to develop in the East when this happens. Yesterday the GFS was responding to this by showing a developing second wave on a cold front late next week.

winter pattern

Yesterday’s GFS model run was perhaps a bit fast with this idea but since then it has been showing a much flatter low much further offshore with no real consequence. The GFS simply overwhelms the East with cold air which would leave no room for anything to happen. The upper flow shows a broad jet stream far to the south with re-enforcing surges of cold air coming down out of Canada.

GFS WEATHER MODEL SATURDAY DECEMBER 9TH

The European however has a different idea. It brings cold air beginning later Wednesday but it hangs the main trough back to the west so that it takes a long time for the front to move offshore. The European still has it precipitating into Thursday morning with a change to sleet and snow at the end inland of the coast.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL SATURDAY DECEMBER 9TH

weather models

The European handles things completely different than the GFS as it argues for another disturbance swinging around at the bottom of the trough and then lifting up the East Coast into the colder air. Both model solutions seem plausible. I continue to lean to the idea that a second wave on the cold front is a possibility for the end of next week. However it might be nice to have some model consensus or at least have them reasonably close. But they never make things easy do they? It would seem that once again models handle the strong upper high in the Atlantic differently or at least different enough to create these model divergences. The Pacific side of the equation seems similar on both models. The surface maps below show the differences quite well.

weather models

weather models

Needless to say it is very early and we have a long way to go on this.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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