weather models

Weather Models On Tropical System & Weekend Cold Shot

Weather Models On Tropical System & Weekend Cold Shot

Weather Models On Tropical System & Weekend Cold Shot

GFS Stronger Front Absorbs Tropical System

Canadian Just The Opposite 

Looking at the water vapor imagery above it appears that while the weather system east of the Bahamas remains rather disorgainzed thunderstorms seem to be increasing and becoming a bit more concentrated. There is a broad area of low pressure that has developed and the question going forward is whether this system can organize itself into something tropical or subtropical in nature. Weather models have been showing this idea for days now and continues to show it on the latest weather model run.

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Looking at the day run GFS verses the new overnight GFS weather model run and we can see some major differences in the approaching trough from the west. It is much deeper and faster. It is also lifting up and around in what is known as a negative tilt. A positive tilt would be angled northeast to southwest and would push everything to the east. The negative tilt allows the system to be picked up to move south to north.

WEATHER MODELS GFS COMPARISON

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Now the question here becomes a bit dicey. Is the tropical system offshore able to maintain its identity as a separate feature or is the trough so strong that the surface low that forms over New Jersey on the cold front become the dominant feature and winds up absorbing the tropical system. To me it seems that the developing surface low nearby becomes the primary player here with the tropical low basically getting kicked along to the northeast until it becomes completely absorbed in the Gulf of Maine.

WEATHER MODELS GFS SURFACE FORECAST

weather models

The end result would be some rain from the developing non tropical system followed by a shot of cold air that is drawn southward behind it. The upper trough to the west while deeper would need to be even further left in order for any tropical system to hold together and move northward rather than being absorbed. This solution lines up along the European model’s ideal earlier on Monday. The end result would be some showers or a period of rain that sadly would not amount to much followed by a cold dry shot of air for Saturday with temperatures probably not much above the low to mid 50s for daytime highs.

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The Canadian model has a much more bullish view on rainfall as it keeps the tropical system intact and brings it north northeast to near Cape Cod while the rainfall gets enhanced on the western side.

WEATHER MODELS CANADIAN SURFACE FORECAST

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The difference is that in the upper air the Canadian is not nearly as developed with the trough or the vortex that results in Canada. This allows for the tropical system to remain intact much longer. The  upper air structure is different then the GFS in that the GFS puts all its eggs in the northern part of the trough and intensifies that while the Canadian brings around a much stronger secondary shot of cold air early next week. The Canadian weather model would also produce much more rain than the GFS weather model. Needless to say…many runs to go. Of course we wonder what the European will do.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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