Tropical Storm Watch Flash Flood Watch Isaias Heads Up The Coast Tuesday
Tropical Storm Isaias has gotten better organized again this afternoon and evening and the National Hurricane Center has raised Tropical Storm Watches up from the Carolinas to Long Island and Long Island South which of course includes coastal Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Flash Flood Watches are up as well for most of the same area as well as areas well inland into South Central Pennsylvania southward into Virginia. Flash Flood Watches also extend northward into the Hudson Valley but do not include Long Island at this time. We also have a working tornado watch this evening that covers Northwest New Jersey and extreme Northeastern Pennsylvania north and east into the Catskills, the Hudson Valley and Western Connecticut.
We all felt the tropical air surge northward today and that is setting us up for some severe weather though the thunderstorms are scattered on the regional and local radars. It is possible that any one thunderstorm cell could become severe or even produce a tornado this evening in the watch area. A cluster of strong cells is moving through Eastern Pennsylvania and will continue northeastward so keep an eye to the sky for any approaching severe weather should you happen to be in the path of that cluster.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Tropical conditions will continue until further notice with a very warm and humid night. Most lows tonight will be just in the 70s. Monday promises to be another day of tropical humidity and highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds and the chance for scattered thunderstorms popping up though we don’t expect them to be severe.
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ARRVES TUESDAY
5PM LOCATION…27.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES
Isaias is continuing to move slowly north northwestward parallel to the Florida East Coast this evening and it s now about half way up the coast so it is making progress albeit slowly. Highest winds are now 70 mph and as the satellite picture above shows, Isaias is trying to get back to hurricane strength. Convection is concentrated near the center and we see the feathering of high clouds to the east which is often a sign that a storm is organizing and strengthening thanks to improved outflow. There is a chance this could make minimal hurricane strength again before it heads into the Carolinas late Monday and Monday night.
The Hurricane Center forecast track takes Isaias inland near the South Carolina North Carolina state line and the north northeastward up the coast reaching a point near NYC sometime late Tuesday evening. With respect to wind the map below shows the most likely time of the arrival of gales.
The strongest winds will be to the east of the storm track and the heaviest rains to the west of the storm track. The track line is the one that cuts through just to the west of the Tropical Storm Watches which are in yellow. Gales will arrive in Southern New Jersey and Delaware mid morning Tuesday and late in the afternoon around NYC and Long Island. The maps below show the forecast wind gusts for 2pm and 8pm Tuesday.
50 to 60 mph wind gusts are likely east of the track. The main concern for Coastal Flooding will be south facing shorelines of Long Island and Connecticut with these strong south winds will come around the time of high tide Tuesday evening.
Rainfall amounts should exceed 4 inches in the areas west of the track of the storm. Showery rains will start up early on Tuesday and then become heavy at times as the day wears on into Tuesday night. Once the storm center passes by, there isn’t much on the south side so the rains should quickly shut off. The strongest winds and heaviest rains should last about 6 to 8 hours or so.
If everything moves according to plan weather conditions will improve quickly later Tuesday night and Wednesday should be a breezy day with some sunshine and clouds and the chance for a passing shower. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lower humidity.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.