Tropical Storm Watch Long Island Tuesday Isaias Center Forecast Track Just To The West
Front and center for Long Island is a Tropical Storm Watch that is in effect for Tuesday. Tropical Storm Isaias is crawling northward just off the central east coast of Florida with 70 mph winds. It will be heading into the Carolinas late Monday or Monday evening and then to Long Island on Tuesday. There are no issues tonight other than the very warm and humid conditions that are over us with temperatures in the 80s. We have lots of clouds as the satellite shows. As far as thunderstorm activity goes most of it is widely scattered and chances are we won’t see any.
None the less it is probably wise to watch the radars this evening in case a stray cell shows up There are tornado watches up to the north and west of Long Island but it seems most of the thunderstorms should stay away from us leaving Long Island in very tropical conditions overnight. Lows will be mostly in the 70s.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Monday there are no weather issues other than it will be very warm and humid with some sunshine. HIghs will be in the mid to upper 80s. It will be cooler at the shore with a south wind and a little cooler on the East End as well but the humidity will be oppressive with dew points in the 70s.
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY
The big issue for Long Island will be the wind rather than the rain. The track of the storm is the center black line on the map above and that takes the tropical storm to near NYC sometime late Tuesday evening. This puts us east of the storm track. That means showery rains, heavy at times but rainfall amounts should be under flash flood criteria.
The bigger issue for Long Island will be the wind. Gales will arrive late in the afternoon or early evening and the maps below show the wind gust forecast for 5pm and 8pm. Some gusts will be in the 50 to 60 mph range from the south.
The strongest winds will likely be from 6pm to midnight. This puts Long Islands south facing shore line in a rather precarious position with strong south winds for two days going into Tuesday and then screaming south winds from off the ocean at the time of high tide Tuesday evening. This comes just a day after the peak full moon tide on Monday. This means there could be one high tide cycle Tuesday evening that produces a serious coastal flooding episode for the south shore.
Notice how quickly the winds shut off at 11pm (roughly) just to the west and the winds on Long Island will drop off quickly after midnight as Isaias moves into New England. Weather conditions should improve overnight and Wednesday looks like a decent day of sunshine and clouds with highs back into the 80s. Please note that the forecast of the time will be dependent on Isaias and how it moves up the coast so they could be adjusted earlier or later depending on the speed of the motion of the storm itself. We will do whatever adjusting we need to do regarding the time over the next 2 days.