Severe Weather Risks Late Today Tropical Storm Isaias Moves Through Area Tuesday
The atmosphere is priming for the arrival of Tropical Storm Isaias on Tuesday as it moves up the East Coast. In that priming process today we are seeing very humid conditions developing with dew points rising into the 70s. Combine that with some daytime heating, a slow moving front to the west, and a very unstable atmosphere and you have severe weather risk as well as tornado risk in the Northeast today.
You don’t see a 5% risk in the Northeast very often so it would be wise to pay attention late this afternoon and evening. A warm front is going by and putting us in the warm unstable air and you can see the arm of clouds on the satellite to the west in Pennsylvania swinging eastward. Highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees and it will feel like south Florida. On the lower portion of the satellite you can see Tropical Storm Isaias off the Florida East Coast.
The showers and thunderstorms you see on the regional radar are due to the warm front moving through and those storms will move into New England. The we will wait for some more to develop late this afternoon and evening. My feeling is they will be scattered in nature with some severe thunderstorms possibly in the mix.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
The tropical air stays with us tonight through Tuesday night and of course this culminates with the arrival of Isaias later Tuesday. Today it is all about the Florida East Coast and there isn’t much going on regarding rain since the storm has a weak west side.
I am not expecting this to change very much in strength between now and the time it moves into the Carolinas which will be later Monday into Monday evening. It will landfall as a tropical storm or at worst a a minimal hurricane and then continue north northeast up the coast. for arrival here on Tuesday. There are no weather issues for Monday other than it will be very warm and humid with some scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s. Weather conditions will deteriorate from south to north on Tuesday with showery rains that will become heavy at times as the day wears on.
The rule for tropical storms at our latitude is heaviest rain falls along and west of the storm track and strongest winds with less rain will be east of the storm track. This should hold true for Isaias with that transition beginning as the storm approaches North Carolina on Monday.
Today’s NAM model shows an acceptable profile of the rain area with 2 to 4 inches or more west of NYC and 1 to 2 inches or even less to the east. This makes sense given the track which will be just inland of the coast. As for wind look for wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph along the New Jersey coast and over Long Island as well as Southern New England. Below is forecast for wind gusts at 8pm Tuesday
The track on the models is rather straight forward as they have all been nudging west and that is not a surprise given the south southwest flow in the upper atmosphere.
Once the storm goes by during the early morning hours on Tuesday weather cpnditions should rapidly improve and we should see sunshine back on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and some leftover wind early in the day.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.