Tropical Storm Development Gulf of Mexico
Weather models remain very consistent with the idea of a tropical storm developing in the Northwest Caribbean and moving into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Upper level winds would suggest that anything that winds up in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to turn to the northeast and head to the west coast of Florida next Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center now rates this as a 60 percent chance of development.
Tropical Storm Development Gulf of Mexico GFS MONDAY
Tropical Storm Development Gulf of Mexico GFS MODEL TUESDAY
Today’s GFS model run does not give this system a true tropical look. Now that could be just a model bias. It also could be a wind shear issue. The GFS model has the system under a small area of light wind shear but there is strong southwest shear on the western side of the surface low center. This could be the reason why the system does not have that typical tropical look to it.
Tropical Storm Development Gulf of Mexico
GFS MODEL WIND SHEAR FORECASTS
The area in orange is showing strong winds of 40 knots or higher on the west side of the surface low. The area in blue shows winds of 20 kts or less. The surface low sits under the low wind shear but there is strong wind shear on either side, assuming the model is correct on this. This system may wind up behaving more like a subtropical system then a truly tropical system. However this is something that we won’t know until the system gets going over the weekend. The outcome could be heavy rains on the east side of the low which is forecast to move toward and over Florida later next Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Development Gulf of Mexico
GFS MODEL UPPER AIR TUESDAY
The upper air profile early next week shows a deep upper low in Eastern Canada and a very strong westerly flow all the way down to Florida. This broad look argues strongly against any of the rains from this system ever making it up the east coast. Rainfall for Central and North Florida and the Southeast US could be substantial.
Tropical Storm Development Gulf of Mexico
GFS MODEL RAINFALL
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