tropical storm gert

Tropical Depression 8 Nearing Tropical Storm Strength

Tropical Depression 8 Nearing Tropical Storm Strength

 

Tropical Depression 8 Nearing Tropical Storm Strength

Judging from the satellite loop this afternoon Tropical Depression 8 is close to or may already be a tropical storm. We will wait of course for the 5pm advisory but the convection has increased especially on the west and north side of the circulation where it was lacking earlier. It looks like a core of thunderstorms is developing near the low level circulation this afternoon. I would expect that we will have Tropical Storm Gert by this evening. The ultimate forecast track remains unchanged with this system as it is no threat to land and is forecast to turn northward and then northeastward midway between Bermuda and North Carolina.

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..DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.4N 71.5W
ABOUT 525 MI…845 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 71.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through today.
A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reports from a NOAA buoy
is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None

 

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The Tropical Atlantic has another strong wave that has moved off the African coast and is near the Cabo Verde Islands. The satellite loop shows a large complex low pressure system with probably two low centers. You can see there is a swirl of low clouds to the north of what appear to be an area of strong thunderstorms southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Weather models continue to show a bullish outcome to this including the European which develops this system. It also carries it straight westward over the next several days and has it in the Caribbean. It seems to have 2 systems here that develop separately while the other models basically have 1 system moving west or west northwestward.  The National Hurricane Center has this at a 30 percent chance of developing in the next 5 days but I suspect we will see that number go higher in the coming days. Conditions seem favorable for further development.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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