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Sunshine To Clouds Snow Rain Tonight
Snow Rain Wednesday
It is a sunny cold start to this Sunday and we should see a fair amount of sunshine into this afternoon before clouds increase. Low pressure is moving across the Midwest today bringing snow to the east. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for areas just north and west of NYC & Long Island. In New Jersey the advisories are mostly north and west of the turnpike and extends into South Central Pennsylvania and into a small area in North Central Maryland. For areas to the south the issue is more of a mix of sleet freezing rain and rain that changes to rain.
Snow forecast totals remain the same from the forecast a few days ago. Overnight weather models show very little reason for me to change. Weather models remain consistent in their view of an atmosphere just warm enough to change snow to rain along the coast and a wintry mix in areas to the south in Southern Pennsylvania.
The HRRR model at midnight tonight shows the primary low in Northwest Pennsylvania and the beginnings of a secondary low developing off the Delaware coast. At this point the snow mixing line iined up along or just south of Route 78. During the early morning hours the main area of precipitation will shift to the east and end as either sleet or some light rain or drizzle by daybreak. The primary going into Northwest Pennsylvania hangs on for too long which brings in warmer air, changes snow over to rain and shuts it off. Inland though in the Hudson Valley and across Connecticut, snow lasts longer and here amounts could be somewhat higher.
There could be some upside in the 1 to 2 inch zone and we could see some 3 inch amounts in that area. Everything moves along overnight and weather conditions should improve as the day wears on Monday with leftover clouds. I made a few minor adjustments in the snow forecast map to add a 2 to 3 inch zone in the Hudson Valley and a 1 to 2 inch zone a little further south. A quick burst for a few hours could produce a fast inch or so near the coast before it goes tot sleet and then to rain.
There are no weather issues however through much of the daytime today other than clouds arriving and increasing this afternoon. For most the snow starts between 7pm and 10pm tonight. and then a change to rain from south to north. It should be all done by daybreak as this all shifts to the east. Weather conditions should improve Monday afternoon with highs ni the 30s to near 40.
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
No changes in the outlook for Wednesday from what we can see. It still looks like the system from last Tuesday though I think it will be weaker. Im currently leaning on the idea of a 1 to 3 inch snow fall before a change over to sleet and then to rain. Slightly higher amounts could occur inland north and northwest of the coast. This is another primary secondary low situation with a primary low to the Great Lakes. This is NOT a scenario that produces big snows for our zone of the northeast no matter what you might read or see elsewhere.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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