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Snow Sunday Night Monday Morning
Wednesday Snow Sleet Rain
After what was a beautiful mid February day of sunshine we continue to carry it through tonight with clear skies showing up on the satellte tonight. A weak storm to the south never had any impact at all here and now continues on its merry way to the east. We will be clear all night with not much wind and temperatures that will head down into the 20s by morning. The next storm system is gearing up in the Plains tonight and will be moving east and arriving here Sunday evening. In the meantime the radars are silent in the Northeast and northern Middle Atlantic states and will remain so into Sunday morning when we will begin to see the leading area of precipitation developing to the west. Nothing gets here until evening so enjoy a dry Sunday with sunshine giving way to arriving clouds and highs mostly in the 30s.
Precipitation begins to arrive here Sunday evening between 7pm and 11pm from west to east. Temperatures along the coast are marginal while it will be colder inland. The rain snow line initially will like somewhere between Route 78 & 195 in New Jersey and extend westward along and just north of Route 76 in Pennsylvania. That line will straddle close to the south shore of Long Island Sunday night which makes figuring out amounts a bit tricky. Precipitation totals with this will be on the order of tow to three tenths of liquid so if every drop falls as snow in theory 2 to 3 inches could accumulate in areas that stay cold enough. We remain cautious on amounts and have kept them scaled back accordingly. No changes have been made to the snow forecast we put out yesterday. There is room for a little upside if it turns out temperatures are a degree or two colder so we will be monitoring them closely for any important changes.
Let us take a look at the system for Wednesday which looks very similar to the system from last Tuesday however this system is not nearly as deep (intense) as that one was. This means a weaker precipitation field and also weaker mechanisms for snow development. Nonetheless there is enough here for snow to break out Wednesday afternoon and then head northeastward.
Like last Tuesday, we have a primary heading to the Great Lakes, a weak secondary that will develop along the Carolinas, and a cold high in Southern Quebec with cold air wedging southwestward into Western Virginia where we see an area of sleet and freezing rain. Once again the high will eventually give way as the primary and secondary lows move northeast. This will lead to a 4 to 6 hour period of snow for areas from Southern Pennsylvania to Southern New England before it changes to sleet and then ultimately to rain in many areas.
With relatively weak features here aloft it is hard to imagine any upside here from all this. Normally snow maps from the models aren’t much use but I thought that the GFS positive snow growth map which takes into account all the variables including melting probably isn’t a bad representation of how things should play out here.
I don’t think that there should be anything more than a 1-3″/2-4″ snow sleet accumulation potential from this system and I would not be at all surprised to see this lean more toward the low end then the high end of the ranges. Higher amounts are possible well north in Upstate NY & New England and also in the mountains back in Virginia and West Virginia before a change over takes place. This is an early look and Sunday I will issue my first early call snow forecast map on the system for Wednesday. In the meantime we watch what happens Sunday night and Monday morning.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.