snow

Snow Weather Model Dilemma Saturday

Snow Weather Model Dilemma Saturday

trademark

Snow Weather Model Dilemma Saturday

There is a dilemma in all of the weather models today and it concerns the area along the coast. Specifically Long Island to New York City to Central New Jersey between Route 78 and Route 195. That dilemma involves the warm front to the south and a wave that develops on that front. We have been speaking about this for the last several days. The issue is that if that wave develops (All the models have it to some degree), it could delay the changeover to rain for an hour or two. Normally this would not be a big deal however a 1 to 2 hour delay in a situation like this could make the difference between 1 to 3 inches and 3 to 6 inches so it is important that we watch to see how this all evolves tomorrow morning and when the change over takes place. Inland north, northwest and northeast, it probably won’t make much of a difference since those areas were going to snow longer anyway and eventually the first area of precipitation moves out by midday.

snow

snow

The map above shows the RGEM model which is actually an underrated model and can sometimes do quite well in all sorts of situations. It shows the wave right along the New Jersey coast at 10am Saturday. At this point the snow is changing to rain on Long Island but it is still mostly snow north of 195 in New Jersey and it also pins back a large area of freezing rain across Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. If this happens you can expect snow totals in the coastal regions to finish at least at the higher end of the ranges and it opens the door to a little upside surprise.

snow

You can see the RGEM snow map has a large area of 4 to 6 inches further south and touching the coast with an even larger area of 2 to 3 inches extending further south into New Jersey. Again the wave development will be key.

snow

My snow forecast maps reflects this idea somewhat as i nudged amounts a little higher for coastal regions though not by much. We will be watching this quite closely tonight. None of this changes the fact that temperatures will be in the 50s by Sunday morning just about everywhere except far northern areas. Rain and a cold front will cause temperatures to fall by Sunday afternoon. I am not anticipating a serious changeover to snow on the backside Sunday evening though we could see some icing developing Sunday night if cold air comes back in fast enough. We will be in the low to mid 20s by Monday morning.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

           SNOW REMOVAL COMPANIES FOR YOUR WINTER NEEDS

             LONG ISLAND                                ROCKLAND COUNTY                   Connecticut

http://www.fragalalandscape.com/https://greenworldh2o.com/

http://cuttingedgelawnct.com/

comfort

edge-landscape

 

 

JOHNSTOWN PA 

COLOSIMO LAWNCARE

colosimo

 

 

 

 

 

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

JOIN JOESTRADAMUS ON YOUTUBE!

LATEST JOESTRADAMUS ON THE LONG RANGE

LONG ISLAND WEATHER

NEW YORK WEATHER

 

Weather App

storm free

Don’t be without Meteorologist Joe Cioffi’s weather app. It is really a meteorologist app because you get my forecasts and my analysis and not some automated computer generated forecast based on the GFS model. This is why your app forecast changes every 6 hours. It is model driven with no human input at all. It gives you an icon, a temperature and no insight whatsoever.

It is a complete weather app to suit your forecast needs. All the weather information you need is right on your phone. Android or I-phone, use it to keep track of all the latest weather information and forecasts. This weather app is also free of advertising so you don’t have to worry about security issues with your device. An accurate forecast and no worries that your device is being compromised.

Use it in conjunction with my website and my facebook and twitter and you have complete weather coverage of all the latest weather and the long range outlook. The website has been redone and upgraded. Its easy to use and everything is archived so you can see how well Joe does or doesn’t do when it comes to forecasts and outlooks.

Just click on the google play button or the apple store button on the sidebar for my app which is on My Weather Concierge. Download the app for free. Subscribe to my forecasts on an ad free environment for just 99 cents a month.
Get my forecasts in the palm of your hand for less than the cost of a cup of Joe!

 

storm free

googleplay

Liked it? Take a second to support joestradamus on Patreon!