Snow Weather Model Dilemma Saturday
Snow Weather Model Dilemma Saturday
There is a dilemma in all of the weather models today and it concerns the area along the coast. Specifically Long Island to New York City to Central New Jersey between Route 78 and Route 195. That dilemma involves the warm front to the south and a wave that develops on that front. We have been speaking about this for the last several days. The issue is that if that wave develops (All the models have it to some degree), it could delay the changeover to rain for an hour or two. Normally this would not be a big deal however a 1 to 2 hour delay in a situation like this could make the difference between 1 to 3 inches and 3 to 6 inches so it is important that we watch to see how this all evolves tomorrow morning and when the change over takes place. Inland north, northwest and northeast, it probably won’t make much of a difference since those areas were going to snow longer anyway and eventually the first area of precipitation moves out by midday.
The map above shows the RGEM model which is actually an underrated model and can sometimes do quite well in all sorts of situations. It shows the wave right along the New Jersey coast at 10am Saturday. At this point the snow is changing to rain on Long Island but it is still mostly snow north of 195 in New Jersey and it also pins back a large area of freezing rain across Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. If this happens you can expect snow totals in the coastal regions to finish at least at the higher end of the ranges and it opens the door to a little upside surprise.
You can see the RGEM snow map has a large area of 4 to 6 inches further south and touching the coast with an even larger area of 2 to 3 inches extending further south into New Jersey. Again the wave development will be key.
My snow forecast maps reflects this idea somewhat as i nudged amounts a little higher for coastal regions though not by much. We will be watching this quite closely tonight. None of this changes the fact that temperatures will be in the 50s by Sunday morning just about everywhere except far northern areas. Rain and a cold front will cause temperatures to fall by Sunday afternoon. I am not anticipating a serious changeover to snow on the backside Sunday evening though we could see some icing developing Sunday night if cold air comes back in fast enough. We will be in the low to mid 20s by Monday morning.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS
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