Snow Thursday Speed Timing Key Factors
Snow Thursday Speed Timing Key Factors
With the models continuing to change regarding the storm in the Great Lakes, speed and timing will be the key factors into whether Thursday’s weather system will be anything worth watching. We have the Great Lakes storm system not as formidable as earlier forecast. This is very important because a large intense storm in Southeastern Canada would overwhelm cold air into the east and suppress everything to the south. It would turn cold and dry and that would be it. This is not going to be the case at this point. That opens up another can of worms being how much cold air gets in here before the wave develops on the front to the south and moves by to our south and east.
There are differences showing up on the NAM and GFS model this afternoon with the GFS faster with the wave. The NAM brings in colder air a little further south and has the wave back south and west of the GFS. The NAM is slower with the wave coming out as it is slower with the energy coming around in the jet stream.
The slower NAM could favor a more robust wave than the GFS which tends to have a flat look to it. We can say that either model would not produce anything more than a moderate snowfall should they materialize. One of the possibilities with the GFS is that the lack of cold air initially could mean that some of the precipitation starts off as rain before changing to snow. I think at the moment I will wait to see how the models resolve all this. One other possibility we mentioned earlier is that the cold air overwhelms so much that we see nothing at all and that certainly remains as one of the choices on the table.
One of the things we should watch for over the next 10 days is the northwest flow from Canada. A series of systems will be coming along in the flow. I often have seen such a pattern potentially be a snow producer. The key here is whether the system in the northwest flow dives far enough west and south of us and whether it shows some strength.
The European model as well as others suggests this possibility for something around mid month. We will monitor this possibility as well going forward. A flatter look would mean nothing more than a cold front. A look like this opens up possibilities of a low moving southeast from the Great Lakes and reforming off our coastline. Long shot at this point certainly but this is something I believe is worth watching.
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