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Snow Threats Arctic Air Weather Model Analysis

Snow Threats Arctic Air Weather Model Analysis

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Snow Threats Arctic Air Weather Model Analysis

Over the last several days I have been saying here as well as on my videos that it was important not to focus too much on the specifics of the short range but rather to get an idea of the broader pattern and watch it play out. Often times weather models suggest things that appear and disappear only to reappear in the short range. That appears to be happening tonight as the GFS & Canadian weather models both seem to be zeroing in on a threat for snow early next week along with the prospect for very cold air later in the week (more so the GFS and yesterday’s European than the Canadian) and more storm threats down the road. The first comes on Monday.

GFS WEATHER MODEL SNOW THREAT MONDAY

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CANADIAN MODEL SNOW THREAT MONDAY

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Both models bring out energy from the west however the GFS brings out a weaker piece than the Canadian and holds back stronger energy with the arctic front for Tuesday night into Wednesday. The Canadian does the reverse where it brings out the stronger piece first and the weaker piece with the arctic front. It also as a weaker arctic intrusion for later next week than the Canadian but it was similar to the dayside European model. The system as depicted on the GFS model is rather similar to what happened yesterday except that there is more cold air around to play with. Recently some models particularly the European and Canadian have been way too strong with weather systems moving into the east and the GFS up until now has performed better in this regard. One of the keys may be the North Atlantic Oscillation which earlier today was forecast to go slightly positive early next week. Perhaps this series of model runs is suggesting that the NAO may stay negative for a longer period than earlier forecast. Ensemble forecasts are mixed but seem to be supportive of the GFS idea. We will of course wait to see how the European model sees all this later this morning.

LATE DEVELOPMENT..THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS MATCH UP RATHER WELL!!!

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