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Snow Showers Today Coating to an Inch or So Tonight
In a normal winter a system like this probably would not get much attention but since snow lovers are desperate for anything, and time is running out on the winter clock, they are not going to miss a single flake however little it might be. That really is what we have for today and tonight is a little event. Clouds have long rolled in and it is cold out with temperatures in the 20s. We are already seeing some precipitation streaking eastward out of Pennsylvania so there are some small flurries flying around in a few places.
What is coming now on the radar is moving into very dry air so it is weak and much of it evaporating. To the west is an area on the radar moving southeastward with slightly more robust snow showers streaking across Pennsylvania. Those might hold up a bit stronger as the make the trip eastward. Look for some on and off snow showers or flurries during the day with temperatures just in the cold 20s.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The main area pushes through tonight and we are on the southern end of all this. I think the best approach is the chance there could be a coating to an inch or so in most places from Route 78 in New Jersey north and east which would include the Hudson Valley, NYC, Long Island and Connecticut. There could be a little upside for an inch or two north of 287 in the Hudson Valley, over Eastern Long Island east of Route 112, and in Connecticut north of Route 15. There really isn’t much more to deal with here. South of Route 78 in New Jersey..at most a coating or nothing of consequence should fall.
You can see on the NAM model radar loop how it handles the snow. This is from 1pm today to 7am Thursday. The bulk of this passes north so it will be a matter of just how much we can grind out on the southern end of this. Notice how the coastal low forms and just slides out to the east offering only a slight enhancement of the precipitation. The features here are all very weak.
You can see what an absolute mess the pattern is in at the moment. 5 weak lows each having impact on the next one and all in very close proximity to each other. It illustrates the flat messy nature of the weather pattern at the moment and the difficult time forecasters are going to have trying to sort through this mess. About the only thing we can say here is that system number 3 off the Southeast Coast of the US tonight won’t have a direct impact on our weather tonight as it heads out to the east. It will just be impacting everything else around it. That map above is for midnight tonight. System number 4 is something that NAM model appears to be working on for Thursday night into Friday morning. However every single model has a different idea as to how system 4 plays and system 5 which is probably lining up for the East in some fashion for Sunday night and Monday. Since this is a situation where weather systems are feeding back on each other, it is useless to speculate beyond the one that is in front of us other than to say it is complicated into early next week. One thing we do know is that next week will be cold with a flow from Canada and high pressure spreading out from there and across the US. I still believe that after that plays out, we will see a pattern develop that suggests that spring arrives on time this year.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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