JOESTRADAMUS Early Look Sunday Into Monday Snow Rain

JOESTRADAMUS Early Look Sunday Into Monday Snow Rain

EURO, GFS, Joestradamus, long range forecast

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JOESTRADAMUS Early Look Sunday Into Monday Snow Rain

Today’s model runs have brought some clarity to the situation with the last short wave trough moving into the East on Sunday and it is really very simple. All the models have some variation of this idea so they are on the same page. It really is now a very simple question. Is the European with its slightly stronger ridge in the East correct? If it is then you will get a wave developing on a stalling front. The cold air never reaches the coast and it will be mostly rain with snow north and west of the orange arrows.

JOESTRADAMUS Early Look Sunday Into Monday Snow Rain

The GFS/ICON/CANADIAN have a slightly flatter ridge, a slightly less defined trough and short wave and a flatter surface. Cold air here arrives in time as the precipitation moves in and it would snow for most areas north and west of the orange arrows and for all areas from from the interior Mid Atlantic and all of the Northeast. This I believe would be a 3-6/4-8″ event if the GFS is correct.

JOESTRADAMUS Early Look Sunday Into Monday Snow Rain

In the European models favor is that everything this winter has wanted to cut to the west so why should this be any different? For the other models, the European has been guilty of showing way too much amplitude with most of the weather systems this winter therefore maybe…just maybe..the flatter colder look works this time.

If you were to ask me right now to pick a decision I would lean toward the European because everything cuts to the west this winter and the mean trough has been closer to 90 degrees west (when the rough has been in the East). However I am totally open to the idea of the flatter look and these lead systems that are running around between now and Saturday are going to play a big part in all this. How they play out will impact how this plays out.

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