snow possibilities

Snow Possibilities Next Week Pattern Turns Colder

Snow Possibilities Next Week Pattern Turns Colder

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Snow Possibilities Next Week Pattern Turns Colder

The grinding process of pattern realignment continues and we are continuing to see the indicators pointing to a pattern similar to the pattern from mid December to mid January. Everything appears to be moving right on course. The first system comes later Monday into Tuesday and it is yet another example of weather models initially showing an offshore low and then gradually reeling it in westward.

SNOW POSSIBILITIES NEXT WEEK GFS MONDAY JANUARY 29 2018

The GFS is probably the warmest of all the models today with a slightly flatter track to the east and a sharp western edge for snow along the immediate coast. Cold air will be draining southward on Monday. The NAM has a colder look overall especially at the bottom of the atmosphere. It also seems to do a bit more with intensity through Monday evening as snow breaks out on this model from Southern New England to the Delmarva Peninsula.

SNOW POSSIBILITIES NAM MODEL MONDAY JANUARY 29 2018

snow possibilities

Complicating all this is the upper air trough that is swinging eastward. Some models develop a separate area of snow with this but this is always very problematic in trying to forecast the impact if any. For now we will place more emphasis on the developing coastal low. As to amounts it seems that a 1 to 3 inch snow fall is possible with the greatest chances along the coastal areas. Since so many issues are borderline and muddled, we will wait to make an early call on this.

LONG RANG EAST PACIFIC OSCILLATION

snow possibilities

Longer range teleconnection indices continue to show a crashing East Pacific Oscillation index which points to colder in the Eastern US. The big surprise today came from the Pacific North America index or PNA which is now far less negative and actually turns positive toward the end of the forecast period.

PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA INDEX

snow possibilities

This change in the Pacific North America index puts another check mark in below average temperatures taking hold in the East as we move into February. We also continue to see models occasional dropping the jet stream back in the west as the European model does today. This would favor warmer air coming back toward the end of the forecast period.

JET STREAM EUROPEAN MODEL MONDAY FEBRUARY 5 2018

snow possibilities

We do not believe this idea at all as it would go against the signals of the teleconnections as well as other indices. The GFS and the GFS ensembles both show near or below average temperatures beginning next weekend and lasting at least through February 11th which is as far as the models go at this point.

There is a second threat late next week just in time for National Glorify A Rodent day (Groundhog Day February 2) which involves a weather front and a wave of low pressure developing on it. We will wait to work out the details with the first system on Monday before we focus on the second.

 

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