Snow Chances March 5-15 One More Window
Snow Chances March 5-15 One More Window
This winter no doubt has been frustrating to snow lovers and cold weather lovers. Cold air has been transient. We have seen 3 windows of opportunity that opened up in early December, January, & February before the pattern flipped to monster storminess in the Western US. I have been arguing there would be one more flip and one more window and long range models seem to be pointing to a brief period from about March 5th-15th where something may happen. Let me be clear that I am talking about chances for snow and not anything more specific than that. Also it would seem to me that the same areas that have seen snow this year which has been basically Northern New Jersey, Southeast NY, Long Island and areas north and east of there and I don’t see anything that changes that view. That means areas to the south down into the Middle Atlantic States, the chances appear slim.
Both the European model and the GFS model show the development of a deep trough in the east and a building ridge in the west which is being anchored by a developing blocking high over Greenland. This to me suggests that there will be several systems that will dive southeastward in the flow from the northwest that will head to the northeast. I think the question will be whether the trough is deep enough and the systems strong enough to take tracks south of 40 degrees north. Or will the flow be less deep and we wind up seeing systems diving to the Great Lakes and moving across New England instead. That would mean nothing more than cold fronts will be moving through producing little or nothing of consequence.
The GFS seems a little more bullish on the idea, not that the European isn’t. Of course this is way too far out to speculate on anything other than there will be a short “window of opportunity”. Teleconnection indices seem to favor this idea. As for next week at least through Thursday temperatures will continue to be above average and there will be two weather systems in play that will bring rain. One late Monday into Tuesday and another late Wednesday into Thursday. After that we will see what happens. For now we watch.
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