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Snow Battles HRRR Model Vs Nam Model

Snow Battles HRRR Model Vs Nam Model

 

Snow Battles HRRR Model Vs Nam Model

It is time for this mid March blizzard to get underway and we area seeing the powerhouse system organizing. The satellite loop this evening show the two distinct areas of energy involved here with the northern stream energy moving southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and the second system in the southern stream which is absolutely loaded with tropical moisture which will gradually become 1 system overnight and intensify into a major storm when it reaches coastal Virginia in the morning.

SATELLITE LOOP

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REGIONAL RADAR

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Snow is on the regional radar is beginning to develop across Northern Virginia and it is moving northward. The rich tropical moisture and heavy rains are now moving out of North Carolina and into Virginia.

LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY

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LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
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Snow will overspread the entire area over the next 6 hours and we will begin putting down accumulations. The big battle right now seems to be between the NAM model and the HRRR model which have similar tracks but the HRRR model has a much colder temperature profile of the atmosphere. This is critically important for coastal areas and their snow forecasts.

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NAM MODEL ABOVE AND HRRR MODEL BELOW 1PM TUESDAY

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By early afternoon you can see where the sleet band is on the NAM vs the HRRR with the HRRR just a bit colder. But the NAM has it changing over at the coast at around 8am while the HRRR still has it snowing along the coast until noon.

SNOW HRRR MODEL 5AM-1PM TUESDAY

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The HRRR snow forecast seems reasonable for areas from NYC north, northwest and northeast. The immediate coast is the big question.

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The other big issue will be the wind and winds along the coast will gust to 50-60 mph Monday as the storm center moves by just to the east of New Jersey and South of Long Island.

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