Severe Weather Risks Heat Humidity Tropical Systems All In Play For The Week Ahead
A new week begins but we are in the same very warm to hot and humid air mass for today but we will add a weak short wave trough to the mix and that means some late day scattered thunderstorms. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has put the area from Northeast Virginia to Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England at a marginal risk for severe weather.
Before that happens however we will see temperatures reach the upper 80s to some middle 90s with lots of sunshine until these storms fire up late today into tonight. A weak short wave trough will be moving through as the trigger mechanism here. It seems like the greatest risk will be from NYC south and that includes all the big cities south to Washington DC, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.
Satellite and radars right now are quiet as you might expect for the first part of the day but we should see activity start to pick up later on. Once these storms pass through we should see improving weather conditions tonight. Tuesday is shaping up to be a very warm and very humid day with dew points in the upper 60s to over 70 in some spots and highs in the 80s to near 90. Some scattered thunderstorms are possible. We can pretty much repeat the forecast for Wednesday with very humid conditions and highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
Things get interesting late this week. Judging from the character of the atmosphere for the first few days of this week we seem to be setting up a tropical environment with such high dew points and a rather weak flow that has some ocean influence to it. Now lets add low pressure now over the Florida panhandle and is forecast to emerge off the Carolina coast late Wednesday or Thursday. This low will then push north northeastward up the coast.
The flow along the East Coast is weak but it is weak south south west. A trough moving into the Northern Plains will act either as a kicker and punt the system out to the northeast or it will lift it northward like a lever and that could bring a threat for a more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms especially near the coast. The National Hurricane Center highlights this system for possible development once the low emerges offshore later this week and we agree with that possibility. This is something we should watch for later this week. It certainly looks as if the next 4 days will be pretty much the same story of very warm to hot and very humid with the risk for scattered thunderstorms. Friday into Saturday it is about the system coming up from the south and what that entails. Afterwards we have more weakness in the flow as troughing will be in the east through the weekend and into early next week. That might break the heat a bit but it will also increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms along the way.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.