Severe Weather Risks Elevated Later Today Into Tonight Low Humidity Later Friday Into Weekend

Severe Weather Risks Elevated Later Today Into Tonight

Low Humidity Later Friday Into Weekend

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Severe Weather Risks Elevated Later Today Into Tonight

Low Humidity Later Friday Into Weekend

This is going to be a busy severe weather day across much of the area from Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England south to the Northern Mid Atlantic states. Let’s start with the Storm Prediction Center which has elevated the risks zones a bit further in their overnight forecast by adding an area of enhanced risk of severe weather over a large portion of Pennsylvania extending into Central and Southern New Jersey as well as Maryland and Delaware.

Surrounding that is a large area marginal to slight risk and that extends from the Ohio Valley east to Southeastern New England and northward to about I-90 in NY State and New England. This is going to be a busy day but figuring out exactly who gets what and where is going to be a challenge. The slight risk area was extended eastward to include half of Long Island.

This round of severe weather risk includes an unusually large and high risk zone for tornadoes. We normally don’t see risk numbers this high in this part of the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic but we have the dynamics present in the atmosphere. Whether they come together or not is another matter and it will come down to watching what happens on the radars later today.

SATELLITE

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First thing we will be watching for is whether any renegade thunderstorms develop ahead of the main area. Sometimes we see this stabilize the atmosphere and weakening the main line when it arrives. Then it will be a matter of what the radar shows this afternoon. At least for this morning we see some isolated cells from overnight moving across Southern New Jersey, otherwise the radars are quiet to the west.

WEATHER RADAR

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Daytime heating should be ample enough into the afternoon as we head for highs in the 80s. Dew points will will rising into the 70s. We have a very unstable atmosphere ahead of an upper trough and cold front with dry cooler air behind it forcing its way into the tropical air mass we are in. Short range models as always offer a variety of solutions here with the FV3 model rather bullish for thunderstorms area wide.

For timing, renegade cells could develop between noon and 2pm and the main line moves through from west to east between 5 and 8pm. The loop above shows the time frame from 11am to 11pm today. Once the front passes we will see improving weather conditions Friday with decreasing clouds, increasing sun, and plunging humidity. Temperatures will be into the 80s. Saturday looks good with sunshine and low humidity all day. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday brings the next cold front and the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s. We will tackle the weekend and long range more specifically on my weather platform on Patreon.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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