Long Island Elevated to Slight Risk Severe Weather 2 Percent Tornado Risk

Long Island Elevated to Slight Risk Severe Weather 2 Percent Tornado Risk

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Long Island Elevated to Slight Risk Severe Weather 2 Percent Tornado Risk

Among weather folks, Long Island is known as the place where thunderstorms go to die and more often than not that is the case especially for Suffolk County. Sometimes they don’t die and since the local climate impacts are so difficult to figure, the best approach is to acknowledge the risk and then just wait for the radars to tell you whether thunderstorms will survive or not.

The Storm Prediction Center has raised the ante a bit more today as they extend the slight risk zone to Suffolk County except for the East End which is in a marginal risk. The enhanced risk zone lies just to the south and west in New Jersey. The risk area for Long Island also includes a 2 percent tornado risk.

SATELLITE

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Watching the radars the unstable atmosphere is responding by developing some renegade cells in Southern New England and we may see more of them in the early afternoon. To the northwest on the regional radar we already see very busy activity in Western NY and Western Pennsylvania and that is moving to the southeast.

WEATHER RADAR

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This afternoon there will be the chance for thunderstorms developing overhead but the main line should arrive in the late afternoon or early evening as we watch the progress carefully. The strong cold front and the strong upper trough may compensate for any influence from a wind off the ocean which usually is a thunderstorm killer. 5pm to 8pm looks to be prime time for the main line of thunderstorms.

 

Two short range models, the FV3 and the HRRR both for the 1pm Thursday to 1am Friday have two different views. One has a hit for Long Island and one has a miss. Both models seem to be underplaying the current radar so take your pick here. Just watch the radars this afternoon and take your cue from them.

After the front moves east a second front will arrive on Friday and that one won’t have anything with it but it will usher in very dry air on northwest winds Friday afternoon. Friday morning starts humid until the second front passes and they dew points will drop from 70 to 50. Look for leftover clouds giving way to increasing sunshine with highs in the low 80s. Saturday looks beautiful with sunshine and very low humidity. Highs will reacb the upper 70s to near 80. Sunday looks ok as the humidity goes up a bit but it will still be rather comfortable. A cold front could bring a late shower or thunderstorm with highs reaching the 80s.

 

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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