Quiet Week In A Chaotic Weather Pattern Weekend Weather System Uncertainty
Looking across North America we have a rather chaotic weather pattern that has set up. However in the midst of all the chaos of minor weather systems running around, our weather here in the Northeast US is by contrast relatively quiet and calm and will likely remain so through the rest of the work week. Yes there are clouds around today since we seem to lack a solid push of dry air to clean house thoroughly but there are strips of clearing in the mix and we should see some sunshine breaking through from time to time today with highs in the low to mid 40s. Radars are nice and quiet and are not an issue through Friday.
High pressure will start to build in later today and over the next several days so for the rest of the week it will be a little colder but it will be dry. Wednesday Thursday and Friday should see some sunshine each day. Highs by day will be in the 30s..maybe a few warm spots touch 40 or so. Nighttime lows will be in the 20s. That is right around where we should be for this time of year. Now let’s move on to the weekend.
If this winter was a bit more typical of winters in the I-95 Urban Corridor perhaps there would be more cold air in a situation like this but the reality is that with arctic air completely locked up you basically have to work with what i could call “dirty” cold air or cold air that is really..not all that cold! You don’t have a strong high to the north feeding down cold air so with that lacking, you have to work with whatever you have with upper dynamics. The absence of any strong upper air features means the dynamics here are not that impressive. You need some of what I call “do it yourself” cold air and it may not be there for this.
The folks at the Weather Prediction Center have there early look at a chance for at least 2 inches of snow or sleet and here we see a 10% risk with a few pockets of 30% inland which is not exactly a resounding endorsement at this early stage.
The upper air forecast for Saturday morning is equally uninspiring with the southern system basically getting fractured in 2 leaving most of the energy behind in Texas while the northern energy isn’t exactly screaming major storm here. The bottom line is that we have a chance for something in a pattern that is really not that good for snow in the Northeast. Everything has to time out perfectly and you have to have just enough cold air to pull it off. We will go for a chance for rain or snow for now and leave it at that. It won’t be until Thursday that models have this figured out so the nip and tuck back and forth likely continues today.
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