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Quiet Start to Week 2 Systems Ahead Next 7 Days
Snow is winding down around the Baltimore Washington DC area after a 6 to 10 inch snowfall from today’s storm While the snow made up into Southern New Jersey up to about route 195, we saw just patchy areas in and around NYC just get a coating. Sunshine broke out in many areas today as the cloud line sunk southward. We still have some patchy clouds around tonight but as the low offshore moves to the east, skies will slowly clear and temperatures will settle in the 20s in many areas.
Regional radar tonight shows the remaining area of snow in Eastern Virginia, Eastern Maryland and Delaware with some heavier bands of snow still in the mix. The area is moving east. We can see some of the northern fringe echos from this system to the south of NYC and offshore. This should all slowly diminish and disappear during the overnight hours.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Monday and Tuesday we will see two decent days of sunshine. Highs Monday will be in the 30s to near 40 and we should reach upper 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday. Another cold front arrive on Wednesday with nothing more than a few clouds and highs into the 40s. Colder air comes in later in the day and into Thursday morning. Thursday we will see sunshine giving way to arriving clouds with highs just into the 30s.
While all the chatter right now has turned to next weekend we do have a weak system approaching for Thursday night into Friday. This is a weak low and probably overdone by today’s afternoon GFS. Some cold air will be around ahead of it and it might be a bit more stubborn to dislodge than models suggest. This should be a light event but this system is important because it does start the ball rolling for the approaching stronger storm for the weekend.
The weekend system could very well be a powerhouse loaded with moisture. Its fate lies in the strength of the two jet streams above with the north and the south. There is a delicate balance between the cold northern jet and the warmer southern get that develops when a situation like this results in a snow or a rain ice to snow event. The northern jet has to be strong enough to drop south and bring in colder air into the East. Too strong and you suppress everything south again. Not strong enough and the southern stream forces warm air northward delaying the inevitable arrival of cold air. The GFS model has been struggling with this for the last several days going back and forth. Late this afternoon’s run has gone toward the colder look advanced by the European after earlier today the GFS has a warm phased look with a low tracking too far west. We expect this struggle back and forth to continue. The theme this winter so far has been for a stronger northern jet suppressing systems south and we would tend to lean toward the idea advanced by the European model today. This means a colder solution and a rain to ice to snow situation developing next Saturday night and Sunday.
We know what to look for in the coming days. Snow weenies can waste their time drooling over the snow maps, not understanding that much of what is produced here involves freezing rain and sleet with no understanding of what is actually happening upstairs. At least now you know all the puzzle pieces that are out there for the week ahead. There will be more roller coaster rides along the way. Now we wait until about Thursday to see where models settle on all of this. One thing that is common in all the models snow or no snow is a very cold weather pattern is setting up going forward. We got a small taste of it the last several days and look for shots of colder air to continue to gain strength and longevity in the coming weeks and the likelihood of more snow threats along the way. This is what happens in January and February. It is called winter.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.