Quiet Mid Winter Weather Weekend Coastal Storm Options Remain Open
We begin the new work week on a relatively quiet note. This is roughly the middle of winter and the weather pattern is actually unusually quiet. not only up and down the East Coast but across the US. Weather systems are relatively weak as they move along from west to east. Basically it boils down to having a lot of weak weather systems running around rather than having one or two strong ones impacting weather over a wider region.
We have some patchy clouds around today and on the regional radar there is a little bit of snow shower activity going on in upstate NY in and around the lakes. Some of that activity is showing up on the local radars at least aloft but there really isn’t much concern here for any precipitation.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
This leaves us with a day where we should see partly sunny skies (some places more clouds, some places less) with highs mostly in the 40s. From here it is a gentle stair step decline in temperatures over the next few days. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Tuesday will be another day of some sun and clouds with highs in the low to mid 40s. Then Wednesday and Thursday will be cold with some sunshine. Highs both days mostly in the 30s. These two days should be the “coldest” days of the week. If seasonal temperatures are the worst thing we have to deal with, then we are in rather good shape.
We have what at best could be described as a very messy weather pattern across the United States. There is a split flow with two separate jet streams in play. The northern stream is moving weak weather systems along that are producing very little in the way of actual weather other than to take temperatures down a few degrees here in the Northeast. The southern stream is shooting weather systems along from west to east but they also are rather weak and not doing very much.
A major storm can develop out of this weather pattern IF (and it is a big if) the two streams phase together just perfectly and then lift northeastward up the coast. This is what weather models have been showing on and off the last few days while since yesterday we are seeing where models are basically leaving things more separate and suppressed. In a winter like this and a weather pattern like this it requires perfect timing and absolute perfection regarding a set up for snow in the northeast. Frankly the trend is your friend and the trend for this winter has not been a good one for snow lovers along the I-95 urban corridor.
This is what a suppression looks like. If this is indeed the case the weather will be uneventful through this weekend. Low pressure will move off the coast well offshore and we enjoy nice dry weather through this coming weekend. Weather models are still dancing around solutions clarity on this probably won’t really come until Wednesday or Thursday. In the meantime enjoy the nice quiet weather for the week ahead of us.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.