Nam Model Shows Issues Regarding Snow Tuesday Night Into Wednesday
Nam Model Shows Issues Regarding Snow
Tuesday Night Into Wednesday
The late afternoon Nam model shows what one of the issues is regarding the snow for Tuesday night into Wednesday. I pulled up the NAM model snapshot for Wednesday morning 4am. One of the possibilities is that the low offshore with the inverted trough extending from the low to Southeast New England sets up further east. This creates an expanding dry area between it and the snow from the upper trough moving in from the west. It is a possibility that we could see this happen and that would reduce snow amounts considerably especially in the area in between. The other issue for the coast are the borderline temperatures in the layers just above the ground. If precipitation is light then there is a good chance that coastal areas could start as a mix or just rain. However a stronger precipitation profile along the coast could cool the bottom of the atmosphere enough that the precipitation could fall as wet snow. Arguments can be made in both directions on this so we will just have to wait. So far the NAM late this afternoon stood alone on this idea. It should be noted that lately the mid cycle NAM runs have had their fair share of hiccups and this was a different look from earlier when the model was fairly robust in what it produced.
JOE’S SNOW FORECAST NO CHANGES
I’ve made no changes in my snow forecast from this morning. Nothing today swayed me in one direction or the other so I decided the best course is to just stay with what I have for now and I will reevaluate this Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile tonight clouds from the east have hung on along coastal areas while clouds from the west are beginning to push in. Some ocean effect snow showers were seen on Long Island today and they should diminish or disappear overnight. It should remain a quiet night with clouds and some breaks of clear skies with most lows in the mid teens to lower 20s.
Some snow is showing up on the radar in Western Pennsylvania and it should push eastward overnight. Some of that snow will make into Eastern Pennsylvania Tuesday morning but it might take awhile to advance across New Jersey and the Hudson Valley during Tuesday. Clouds will increase everywhere Tuesday with most highs in the low to mid 30s.
Snow should get underway inland during the mid or late afternoon and along the coast at night into Wednesday and then taper off during midday. Some models are taking longer to end the snow. Again along the coast watch for some mixing issues overnight. Temperatures Wednesday should be in the lower 30s where it is snowing…mid 30s possible along the coast. Weather conditions improve Thursday and Friday with sunshine both days and highs in the 30s. Warmer weather is still on course for the weekend with highs in the 40s and even to perhaps 50.