Major Storm Threat Growing For Tuesday
Major Storm Threat Growing For Tuesday
After today’s runs of weather models I think we can safely conclude that a major storm threat for the Middle Atlantic & Northeastern US is growing. All the weather models show an intensifying storm moving up the east coast however as usual 4 days out we have some differences and those differences will be crucial in determining who gets what especially in terms of snow. And as usual 2 models have locked into their own ideas on how this plays and neither one has yet to cave to the other.
MAJOR STORM EUROPEAN MODEL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
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The European model is actually quite simple. It would be a 1 to 2 foot snow storm from Northern Virginia to New England. It has an offshore track (depending on which model source you use that takes an intensifying low from the Carolinas to the Gulf of Maine. The track would be right through the “box” to near the benchmark 40N-70W and there would be no mixing issues or rain of consequence. It would be snow for everyone.
MAJOR STORM THREAT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY EUROPEAN MODEL UPPER AIR
The GFS has a different look with the two systems. It is much deeper with the northern energy where it swings it around and goes “negative tilt faster than the European. The “phase” of the north and the south occurs earlier.
MAJOR STORM GFS MODEL UPPER AIR TUESDAY MORNING
The early phase means the surface low tracks further west and hugs the coast at least for while and that creates mixing and rain issues for coastal areas. This could still mean several to many inches for the coast before any change and a foot plus for areas just inland.
Right now I think we are getting something. I can’t yet rule out the coast hugger idea of the GFS. The Canadian and the NAM model would support the European view vs the GFS. There is still more to go here as far as model watching but by late tomorrow or early Sunday we could see which model will cave to which.
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