Major Atlantic Ocean Storm Clarity Elusive
Major Atlantic Ocean Storm Clarity Elusive
We continue to watch the ingredients for a major Atlantic Ocean storm as they begin to come into the United States. There still remains a wide spread and very little clarity on what the outcome will be for areas along the immediate Atlantic seaboard. The cold air that covers the Eastern US is so overwhelming and extensive that snow and ice will be seen with this from the coastal Carolinas southward to possibly into Northeast Florida! For us the question is snow, how much (if any) and how far west will the western edge of the accumulating snow will be.
MAJOR ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM HERE IS WHAT WE DO KNOW
This storm WILL develop off the east coast of Florida near the northern Bahamas. It is unusual for storms that impact us to form there but there it is this time. Given the enormity of the cold air and the arctic jet stream, expect the unusual.
MAJOR ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM GFS MODEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
The issue is track and position but it is not that easy and there are other complications here. The jet stream energy is fractured to some degree. Usually with major storms you have a unified phased trough. In this instance you have 3 very strong short waves that are fractured. This creates problems with how models handle the development of precipitation. Normally a snow tracking out east of 70 west would mean snow either just grazing shore areas if at all. In this instance however models are having a very difficult time deciding whether snow backs just to the coast or further west.
GFS MODEL JET STREAM THURSDAY JANUARY 4 2017
How all these short waves interact with each other will be key. I think there is a reasonable chance that the northern trough will draw this system back a bit westward and we have seen westward trending systems for the last few months so that would not be unusual. Mid afternoon models are growing more bullish and even the least bullish of the models (European & GFS) all produce some snow just inland of the coast. The European actually produces more snow in Central and South Jersey southerward then it does over Long Island and Southern New England due to its further offshore track to the east before the storm turns more north northeast toward Nova Scotia and that is the rub. Will the low move east before turning north northeast or will it be more tucked in like the Canadian model.
MAJOR ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM CANADIAN MODEL THURSDAY MORNING
MAJOR ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM GFS MODEL THURSDAY MORNING
The difference between the two models is that the Canadian model is 120 miles further north than the GFS. That 120 miles is huge and will make all the difference in the outcome.
Regardless of whether it snows or not a third arctic blast follows Friday into Sunday which will be the coldest of the three arctic shots. Normally at this time I would put out an early call snow forecast map but I’m going to wait until tonight when I see how models trend from here.
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