long range

Long Range One More Pattern Flip

Long Range One More Pattern Flip

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Long Range One More Pattern Flip

When we look at weather patterns over the course of a winter season we tend to see things rhyme. Nothing ever repeats exactly but it seems to me that the winter has plodded along in a very methodical fashion with pattern changes every few weeks. December brought a few shots of cold and one round of accumulating snow in the first half of the month followed by a milder second half. January did pretty much the same thing in the first half and then flipped milder in the second. February started out with a pattern more favorable for snow and colder weather and now we are flipping again to a milder pattern. I think this plays out through the middle of next week and then we start another flip to bring us to the last few days of February and the first couple of weeks of March. It seems to me that we will probably see one or two more snow threats in this time frame.  Also it seems logical to assume that since most of the events we have seen have favored areas north and northwest of the coast (except for the one in early January), any threats would favor areas north and northwest from Central New Jersey and Long Island northward.

long range

Long range teleconnection indices really don’t seem to be saying to much. It looks like all three major indices are going to trend toward neutral (plus or minus a touch) at least according to today’s model runs. We will see cold air move out this weekend and temperatures will rise. By Sunday with a fair amount of sunshine we should see temperatures approach 60 in some places.

LONG RANGE GFS MODEL SUNDAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

long range

LONG RANGE GFS MODEL SUNDAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

long range

You can see on the temperature anomaly map for Sunday how widespread the above normal temperatures are especially in Canada as there is no cold air flow and the polar regions remain cut off. The upper air pattern attempts to go back to a colder scheme (relatively speaking) for the last days of February but there is much confusion to me as to how models get here.

long range

I believe that if you are looking for specific events of the GFS surface map in the long range you aren’t going to find them. It has been the tendency for things to show up in the shorter range this winter and it would be no surprise to me if something doesn’t attempt to pop up late this month or early in March that we really can’t see clearly at the moment.

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