long range heatwave moving

Long Range Looks Cooler Than Average Overall

Long Range Looks Cooler Than Average Overall

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Long Range Looks Cooler Than Average Overall

Since the new normal in this world we live in is that 90 degree days have never ever happened before (see mid May), looking at the long range I really don’t see anything that suggests prolonged hot weather anytime soon. Either they will be cut off after a couple of days by some sort of back door cold front, or the overall pattern will favor weather systems moving along from west to east so cold fronts will cut the heat off just as it gets going.

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The stretch of 90 plus temperatures about to arrive will last from Sunday through Tuesday of next week. This will be 3 days of 90 plus which meets the dumb down rule for a heatwave (old definition was 5 days). All weather models show a back door front pushing through the area from north to south late Tuesday or Tuesday evening. This means that Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler especially near coastal areas as winds will be from the east. ALL WEATHER MODELS show this backdoor and latest runs show the push of cool air to be a bit stronger than previously modeled.

LONG RANGE WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGHS 6/13/2017

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LONG RANGE THURSDAY FORECAST HIGHS 6/14/2017long range

Now as we adventure longer term as we look at the upper air forecasts it appears that we will have an active Pacific jet stream developing from west to east across the United States. This means 2 things for us. In the winter the strong Pacific jet means warmer than average. This time of year if the jet is strong enough it means average or even below average temperatures especially if there is an active jet in Southern Canada. This appears to be the case. That means that cold front could be pushing through every 2 to 3 days and that keeps it from getting too hot for too long.

LONG RANGE JET STREAM NEXT FRIDAY 06/16/2017

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There are two other things that we will be looking at beyond next week. The first will be whether the tendency for some sort of high latitude blocking to appear again. The second is whether there could be some sort of tropical storm development in the Northwest Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The upper air pattern developing across the tropics would seem to suggest that something developing in the seasonally favorable area of the Northwest Caribbean or SW Gulf of Mexico is possible. Some weather models have been picking up on this in their long range views for the last week or so.

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