Long Range Last Chance Snow Hangs On Blocking Gulf of Alaska High
Long Range Last Chance Snow Hangs On Blocking
& Gulf of Alaska High
Since we are now moving into the middle of the month of February a few things are becoming very clear to snow lovers. The clock is ticking. Given the fact that we are where we are in the calendar, and given that there is no real sign of a pattern change for the next 10 days, this puts us at the end of February early March. The reality is the remaining window for anything to happen grows very short and perhaps only for a week or two in March. This will require a wholesale pattern change from what we have now and this will be no easy task given the circumstances of the upper air at the moment.
JET STREAM FORECAST FEBRUARY 22 2018
Over the next 10 days nothing much changes. The strong ridge in the Gulf of Alaska is unrelenting and shows no signs of changing at this point in the next 10 days. This means the pattern we are in continues. Cold shots will move in and out lasting a day or so and then it warms up and rains. We will see that later this week after a cold Tuesday, we warm up to the 60s with rain on Thursday and then back down into the 20s and 30s going into this coming weekend. After this the GFS today does begin to show the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska breaking down and transitioning to a blocky pattern over the Atlantic.
JET STREAM FORECAST FEBRUARY 28 2018
The pattern begins to change late this month on the GFS as pressures begin to rise in NW Canada and the Atlantic takes on more of a blocking signature. However there are two problems. First is we don’t know if this is right. Second even if it is there is still more work to do in the Canadian Northwest where pressures are rising but they need to rise more. Pressures off the Southeast US coast are falling but they need to fall even more. All of this could progress from this point and there is still no guarantee that anything will happen. The bottom line is that the upper air is a complete mess as illustrated here. Could we get a shot for snow in the first half of March? Of course we could but it is becoming increasingly clear that everything will have to line up perfectly in the upper atmosphere for something to happen. The odds each day grow longer and longer.
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