long range blocking

Long Range Blocking Pattern Develops Colder Eastern US

Long Range Blocking Pattern Develops Colder Eastern US

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Long Range Blocking Pattern Develops Colder Eastern US

Weather models continue to hold fast and firm on an evolving blocking pattern that begins to develop late next week and carrys us through Thanksgiving week and possibly longer. In the meantime the very cold shot of air that is currently right over head will hit bottom tonight and Saturday with record lows before the cold air abates and temperatures begin to moderate. Next week we see 2 weak systems moving through with one on Monday and another late Wednesday or Wednesday night. There will be little in the way of showers and just clouds are expected as those two systems move through. We will see temperatures this week close to or slightly below average before a cold front late in the week could bring clouds and showers Friday. That might be the one day where temperatures might push the upper end of the 50s.

LONG RANGE BLOCKING EUROPEAN MODEL NOV 15-20 CLICK TO ANIMATE

The jet stream pattern that is setting up is completely different from what we have experienced during most of October. The ridge in the east is gone. When you animate the graphic above, watch the area around Greenland as higher pressures builds there. This displaces the jet stream well to the south of normal next weekend and it seems that the pattern locks in at least for the time being. This will mean below to much below normal temperatures for Thanksgiving week.



The storm prospect question is an entirely different matter. It would see that areas in the Northeast particularly New England might see their first significant snows in a pattern like this as well as the lake effect areas in upstate NY. Whether we get to see any snow here will be dependent on how energy drops out of Canada and translates to the coast. Right now there doesn’t appear to be anything obvious on the models which means we probably need to be more on alert.

GFS DAY 16 SUNDAY NOVEMBER 26TH

long range blocking

The GFS & European both have the same general idea and since the GFS does go out further we can see that the model holds the block in place right through the weekend after Thanksgiving. If this block lasts long, it will be just a matter of time before some sort of winter weather threat emerges.

 

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