hurricane michael

Hurricane Michael Strengthening 100 mph Category 2

HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WINDS 100 MPH

FURTHER STRENGTHENING LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL

ONCE INLAND HEAVY RAINS FROM GEORGIA TO DELMARVA

The situation with Hurricane Michael is becoming more serious as the hurricane has resumed strengthening after pausing for awhile overnight. Maximum winds are now 100 mph and the pressure from the last recon fix has dropped to 968 mb from 974 mb overnight. Further strengthening is likely today and tonight. Given that the upper air wind shear has relaxed, and Michael was able to strengthen in spite of the wind shear, there seems nothing to prevent Hurricane Michael from reaching category 3 status before landfall. Gulf of Mexico water temperatures along Michael’s path are in the mid to upper 80s.

HURRICANE MICHAEL SATELLITE

storm free

A new recon flight has arrived and as it comes in from the normally weaker northwest side has already found winds in that quadrant up to 83 knots and as it crossed the center into the Southeast quadrant winds of over 100 knots were found. We will see what they find pressure wise but judging from the satellite Michael is getting stronger.

…MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.5N 86.1W
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI…590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

hurricane michael

Storm surge with Michael is going to be very serious indeed. Assuming Michael gets to a category 3 and it is not far from it now, we could see storm surges producing large areas along the Florida coast with water 9 feet above ground. This is according to the Storm Surge Inundation Tool which is on the National Hurricance Center’s web site. Landfall will be during the early afternoon on Wednesday.

hurricane michael

Tropical Storm Watches have now been posted for Coastal Georgia and South Carolina and look for those watches to be extended northward through North Carolina at some point. Once landfall occurs weather models track Michael northeast just inland of the coast. This means that part of the circulation will be over the Atlantic. We will also see energy from an upper trough keep Michael rather juiced up as it moves northeast and spreading tropical storm conditions from Coastal Georgia to Virginia Wednesday night and Thursday.

hurricane michael

The one silver lining here is that with a heavy rain threat hanging over the Carolinas, at least this time, Michael will be accelerating to the northeast and not stalling. There still could be a 4 to 6 inch rainfall from this and flash flooding is likely to occur. How far north Michael gets will depend on a cold front sweeping in from the west.

hurricane michael

Assuming that the weather models are correct the upper trough to the west will push the cold front through our area and keep the bulk of Michael’s rains to our southeast but it is going to be by a rather thin margin here. The GFS is the furthest north of all the models while others are suppressed a bit more to the south making it less of  a close call.

hurricane michael

We will be watching today’s weather model runs very closely. Either way we will be looking at the arrival of very cool air for later Friday and the weekend.

Additional coverage on Hurricane Michael can be found on PATREON SUBSCRIBE TO PATREON FOR A WEATHER EXPERIENCE FREE OF ADS, EXCLUSIVE VIDEOS FOR MEMBERS ONLY AND MUCH MORE…STARTS AT $2 A MONTH..MESSAGE ME AT ANY TIME

THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

 

Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property

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