HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
COULD REACH CATEGORY 4 BY MORNING
LANDFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Hurricane Michael continues to out perform weather models from days ago. The latest round of recon reports show that the pressure has dropped to to 947 mb from 955 mb late this afternoon. The satellite loops continue to show the hurricane organizing and with little wind hear from this point to landfall it seems quite likely that Michael will reach category 4 status by morning.
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST…
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.1N 86.5W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI…325 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…947 MB…27.97 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
HURRICANE MICHAEL SATELLITE
Weather conditions across the Florida Panhandle will deteriorate rapidly going forward with rains and wind beginning to arrive Wednesday morning with the core of the hurricane reaching land late in the afternoon or early evening at the latest. At least from the standpoint of the track, Michael has behaved rather well and there is little change in the forecast track going forward.
Once inland the next focus will be for another round of 4 to 6 inches of heavy rain from Georgia through the Carolinas and into Southeastern Virginia. Many of the areas in the Carolinas are still recovering from the rains of Florence. This while significant will pale in comparison however the flood threshold is low and flash flooding will occur quickly once the heavy rains get underway.
For our area the 1 to 2 inch rain amounts forecast from the Weather Prediction Center will come from a cold front that will be moving through on Thursday. There should be just enough of a push from the northern jet stream to keep Michael’s rain out to the east. Some of the rain could graze Southernmost New Jersey to Delaware but it should come no further north than that. Michael will likely maintain tropical storm strength as it moves through the Carolinas and then it moves off the Virginia coast early Friday morning. From there it will be northeast and offshore. It is likely to get a bit breezy here later Thursday night and Friday with northerly winds as Michael passes by and it could get a bit gusty along the coast. 
While Michael is moving to the northeast the entire weather pattern across North America is changing. The heat ridge along the East Coast disappears and it is replaced by a very cool pattern dominated by a strong Canadian jet stream and a flow from Northwest Canada. This will bring in some nice cool Autumn weather for the weekend.
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THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please consult your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov for the latest information on any tropical or storms or hurricanes that could be a threat to your area. Consult your local government officials regarding action you may need to take to secure life and property
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