hermine

Hermine Nears Hurricane Force

Hermine Nears Hurricane Force

GFS OVERNIGHT MODEL VIDEO ON TROPICAL STORM HERMINE

Hermine Nears Hurricane Force

Mid Run GFS Model Goes Left

European Model Stalls Offshore

This morning’s latest report from a NOAA plane shows a pressure of 994 mb and a flight level wind of 66 knots so Hermine is getting close to hurricane strength. The track toward the north northeast continues at around 11 mph or so. No real big changes on the advisory.

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...HERMINE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 86.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. east
coast from Marineland Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. east
coast from north of South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin
* Marineland to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 86.6 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine
will be near the Florida coast in the warning area tonight or
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated, and Hermine is expected to
be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane was 996 mb (29.42 inches).

GFS MODEL SHIFTS LEFT

We are a long way from having this settled in terms of track, behavior, and weather outcome. All of this hinges on the upper low to the west and how the hurricane reacts to it. This we may not know for awhile yet. Meanwhile the GFS went left on the mid run cycle with the tropical storm tucked in further west northwest.

gfs78

The mid run NAM model lines up with the European ovenight which was further south.

nam84

We are going to be dancing every run of this for awhile. It think at least we know nothing of consequence happens at least into Saturday evening. Also what will be key will be the speed of Hermine and when landfall occurs. This will ultimately effect how far north Hermine gets. The puzzle continues.

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