hurricane warning

Hurricane Warnings Florida & East Coast Threat Weekend

Hurricane Warnings Florida & East Coast Threat Weekend

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GFS & NAM MODEL ANALYSYS

Hurricane Warning Florida Coastal Bend

East Coast Threat Weekend

Hurricane Warnings are posted for the Florida Coastal Bend from the Suanee River to Mexico Beach which includes Panama City. Satellite and NOAA plane reports indicate Tropical Storm Hermine is strengthening with winds now 60 mph and moving north northeast. Strengthening should continue until landfall and Hermine could reach hurricane strength during Thursday.

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...HERMINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 87.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Suwannee River westward
to Mexico Beach Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended
from Altamaha Sound Georgia northward to the South Santee River
South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to South Santee River

Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in the
Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.0 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue
through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center will be near
the coast in the warning area Thursday night.

Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Hermine is expected to
be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HURRICANE WARNINGS & GFS MODEL ANALYSIS

Given that the recon fixes were a little to the east models have adjusted to the east however be advised that this is an unusual and fluid situation here. We could see adjustments left or right going forward. As far as our area is concerned this will all depend on how the storm reacts to the upper low that develops to the west.

gfs96 hurricane warnings

Tonight’s run takes the tropical storm to the northeast off Northeastern North Carolina and offshore and then hooks it back westward putting it in very close proximity to the coasts of New Jersey and Long Island. This would create coastal flooding and beach erosion issues since it takes another day or so for the tropical storm on this model to be ejected to the northeast.

hurricane warnings

These are the latest spaghetti plots which have shifted east on this run to mostly offshore tracks though some are a bit unusual in how they move this. We will have more in the morning when we will see the European, Canadian and mid run GFS and NAM models.

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