Hermine Moving Off North Carolina Saturday
SATURDAY MORNING OVERNIGHT MODEL ANALYSIS GFS, NAM & CANADIAN MODELS
HERMINE MOVING OFF NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NEW JERSEY
TROPICAL STORM WATCH NE NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK CITY, SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER, LONG ISLAND COASTAL CONNECTICUT
Hermine continues to methodically move right along to the northeast with the center straddling for North Carolina and heading to move off the coast near Cape Hatteras Saturday morning. Weather models all initially keep it moving northeast for awhile and I would expect Hermine to strengthen again once it is completly offshore. The satellite loop shows the well defined circulation as it maintains its strength.
Regional radar shows the large area of rain on the northern semicircle moving into the Delmarva peninsula and covers most of Southeastern Virginia as the area continues moving north northeast.
The new overnight spaghetti model plots have a number of the models clustered off shore while some do all sorts of insane things with this storm. I think we have to prepare ourselves for continued uncertainty in a number of respects. We don’t know how it is going to react with that upper low. I also think that this will become some sort of hybridized storm for awhile and could eventually become either a post tropical hurricane or it could regain hurricane status. Nothing is impossible and I rule nothing out.
The vast majority of the models keep this as a tropical storm or a strong tropical storm through 72 hours but the overnight global models so far want to intensify it and when we look at the wind fields on those models it certainly looks like a hurricane.
The GFS model above for 2pm Sunday afternoon shows a large area of 50 to 64 knot winds tightly wound around the center though strongest winds are on the western side. It has a small area of hurricane force winds on the southwest side. This doesn’t quite have the look of a pure tropical storm but it doesn’t have the look of a non tropical one either.
We wait for the European model which begins its run cycle at 2am and we will post about this in the morning. More on the new overnight models on the video above.
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