Hermine Moving Northeast
Hermine Moving Northeast
No Changes Tropical Storm Watches Warnings
European Model Adjusts Right
Based on overnight model runs there have been no important changes to the forecasts with regards to watches and warnings. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Coastal New Jersey southward with Tropical Storm Watches from New York City eastward including Southern Westchester, Coastal Connecticut and Long Island. Hermine is moving off the North Carolina Coast on schedule and should begin to organize an strengthen further offshore. It is also beginning to look more like a post tropical cyclone so it may be transitioning over to that status later today or tonight.
..HERMINE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...WATER LEVELS RISING RAPIDLY IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 75.6W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNW OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 250 MI...40 KM SSE OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to Sandy Hook * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Sandy Hook to west of Watch Hill Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 75.6 West. Hermine is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to continue today. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will emerge over the Atlantic very soon, and then slow down and meander offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves over water, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the south and east of the center. Elizabeth City, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 32 mph (52 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at Rappahannock Light, Virginia, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h), and a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches). A National Ocean Service station at Oregon Inlet Marina, North Carolina, recently reported a pressure of 996.6 mb (29.41 inches).
Based on the latest National Hurricane Center’s forecast track the storm surge forecast into the Sunday night high tide will be 3 to 5 feet up and down the coast from New Jersey to Long Island with 5 to 7 feet forecast for Long Island Sound.
The overnight European model shifted its track to the right and keeps Hermine moving just offshore doing the loop and jog westward. Middle runs continue that idea with a slight trend eastward and the slowly drift it out to the north and northeast during the early part of next week. This will bring several flooding tide cycles. We are going to now see what the day runs do which begin shortly.
The European brings this back westward Sunday night but it is about 75 miles further east then yesterday’s day run. I think the idea of the the track hook back is correct and now it is just a matter of letting it play out. The European would bring gales and rain to the coast from New Jersey to Long Island Sunday and Sunday night into Monday morning but keep the severe storm surge high tide scenario from happening.
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