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Heavy Rain Ending This Evening Colder Air Follows
We still have some moderate to heavy rain to work through for the next few hours though the back edge is progressing eastward. Rain is forecast to end from west to east between 5pm and 8pm. Temperatures are already in the 20s across the western half of Pennsylvania. We are still in the upper 40s to mid 50s. I’m thinking the rain shuts off and there should be at least a few hours between the time the precipitation ends and the time 32 degree temperatures arrive. Along the coast this may not happen until well after midnight. I’m not overly concerned about icing developing tonight from residual moisture.
Rainfall amounts so far have been an inch to an inch and quarter as of 2pm and climbing so we could finish up with 1.50 to 2 inches before this is all over with. Radars area still loaded with rain at the moment.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
We will dry out tonight and no precipitation is forecast through Monday. Other than the chance for some scattered snow showers tomorrow north and west of the coast and perhaps again on Sunday, it will just be cold and dry. Friday we should see some breaks of sun through the clouds with highs in the 30s and then temperatures drop to the teens to near 20 Saturday morning. Saturday we will some sun with patchy high clouds and highs just in the 20s to around 30 or so. Sunday a slight rebound to the 30s to near 40 seems doable before another weak from comes through and high pressure builds in from the north on Monday. Sunshine and colder Monday is forecast with highs in the 30s.
Tuesday starts the transition that will bring bitter cold air into the Plains and Great Lakes and some of that cold air will get into the Northeast beginning later Tuesday night and lasting into Friday of next week. The storm system shown above is the transition mechanism. Low pressure in the form of a primary low heads toward Western NY while there will likely be some kind of secondary low that will try and form. This should pinch some of the warm air moving northward. The polar front will move through Tuesday. However the polar vortex remains rather far to the west and we have southwest winds aloft. This probably suggests some overrunning precipitation on the back side of the front. With the massive extent of the bitter cold air snow is being generated.
You always have to be a little bit suspicious of precipitation on the back side of a front. Usually it shuts off after the front passes. All the models have this for Tuesday night which is a bit unusual. The low in the Gulf of Maine is not particularly deep so perhaps there could be another flat wave in there somewhere. If this were a winter where snow seems to find a way to happen, I would go for it in this case but we are in a snow hole so being suspicious of this solution is probably wise. Either way cold air is coming. The brutal air will stay more to the west and northwest but we will taste some of that bitter air with single digit lows Thursday and Friday and highs just in the teens.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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