Euro Model Strong Winds Sunday Morning
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Euro Model Shows Strong Storm Developing Saturday Night
Strong Winds Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning
Strong winds are a characteristic of early Spring. The atmosphere is dealing with strong temperature contrasts. Spring sunshine is heating up the atmosphere. Cold air is still close by in Canada. The ocean water temperatures are warming much more slowly than the land. All of this plays into a mix than can cause tight pressure gradients between low and high pressure. The atmosphere redistributes these disparities with wind, and sometimes it does it strongly.
Such will be the case this weekend. The Euro model and the Canadian model show this best as they both point to strong low pressure developing Saturday night just to our east. Very cold air will be drawn southward. The pressure difference will be quite large over a relatively small distance. Gusts to 50 mph or more will be coming with the greatest concentration occurring across Coastal New Jersey and Long Island. Winds will be gusty but not as fierce as you head further north and west from these areas.
Euro Model Strong Winds Sunday Morning Canadian Model Sunday Morning
Euro Model Strong Winds Sunday Morning Euro Model Forecast Sunday Morning
The Euro model is extremely aggressive with the strong piece of the polar vortex that drops down over Western Long Island. The strong depth of the upper low and the extremely cold air shown aloft argues for a burst of snow possibly during the early morning hours up until daybreak. A coating to an inch or two would not be out of the question for parts of Northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley and even along the coast it is not impossible. However it will be variable in nature.
EURO SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING
The bigger issue will be the wind. Because the tightest pressure gradient is southwest of the surface low center, the Euro model is forecasting gusts to 60-70 mph along the New Jersey shore with 30 to 40 mph winds up to Long Island and Northern New Jersey with less wind as you move north and west. If the magnitude of the piece of the polar vortex is correct, then the resulting wind would not be a surprise.
Euro Model Strong Winds Sunday Morning Upper Air Forecast Sunday Morning
As to the second weather system for Monday night and Tuesday, the Euro model is taking a surface low and redeveloping just to our south. All of the precipitation falls Monday night into Tuesday morning. It has a cheap thrill idea of a coating to an inch or 2 as rain changes to snow overnight as the low goes by. I continue not to get to worked up over this as it looks like a weak system at best at the moment. I will address the issue later this evening on a separate post.
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