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EARLY SPRING SNOWSTORM LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST
TIMING CRICTICAL AS SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMUALTE MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
TRACK WILL IMPACT AMOUNTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
Technically Spring begins Sunday therefore we wall call this the Euro Model Spring Snow Storm Threat and that threat is increasing. The issue of out to sea seems to be off the table now as we have seen several runs in a row with similar tracks and the models are all fairly close on track. There are a few things we can pretty much state that we are fairly sure of. Any snow that falls before 5pm Sunday won’t accumulate much except on the coldest surfaces which means roads will be fine during the day Sunday. After 5pm when the sun angle becomes a non issue snow will start to accumulate on all surfaces. The Euro model has been consistent for the last 3 runs on the idea of the bulk of the heaviest snow occurring Sunday night into Monday morning.
Euro Model Spring Snow Storm Threat SURFACE MAPS SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING
The out to sea solution appears to be off the table at this point as models appeared to have locked in to the idea of low pressure near coastal North Carolina intensifying and tracking to near Cape Cod by Monday morning. This is a snow storm track and the Euro model has shifted the axis of heavy snow slightly westward. There will be some mixing or rain issues for Coastal New Jersey and Long Island for awhile however the Euro model still puts down a substantial 6 inch plus snowfall for those areas. As the low tracks offshore and strengthens cold air will be drawn southward so areas with mixing or rain issues will ultimately go over to snow. So for those areas it becomes a question of timing and intensity. The Euro model would suggest for all inland areas this would be all snow. So a few miles either way here will make a big difference. Temperatures obviously are going to be critical and we won’t know those specifics until we are almost there on Sunday.
Euro Model Spring Snow Storm Threat EURO MODEL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP
The Euro model is a little faster on this run and my concern is speed. A faster surface low would reduce snow amounts considerably because much of the area would miss the intensification process that is going to occur. Is this a certainty yet? No not by any means. But the odds are increasing for a late season snowfall of size.
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