NAM Model Exposes Timing Issues

NAM Model Exposes Timing Issues

NAM Model Exposes Timing Issues

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Nam model exposes timing issues regarding snow for Sunday and Sunday night. The most important variables I believe with this storm are timing and track. If we assume that the NAM model is close to being correct on the track then that leaves timing. The NAM model today tracks the storm just offshore in what would be wet snow for much of the area.

NAM Model Exposes Timing Issues Surface Maps Sunday morning and Sunday Evening

nam72 NAM Model Exposes Timing Issuesnam84 NAM Model Exposes Timing Issues

The NAM model has an almost perfect snowstorm track but the problem is that the NAM model is also 12 hours faster than the Euro model from last night which had the low off North Carolina on Sunday Evening.

NAM Model Exposes Timing Issues Euro Model Sunday Evening

euro96 NAM Model Exposes Timing Issues

 

That difference is HUGE. If the precipitation falls as snow during the day on Sunday it will be fighting the increasingly strong sun angle and that would mean that accumulations will be minimal during the day Sunday unless it were to snow extremely hard. Certainly it would mean wet roads and not white ones. Accumulations of any consequence would start occuring after 5pm when the sun is low enough in the sky. Also if you don’t get intensity there would be mixing issues along the coast as well. Of course all of this is in theory but it can not be emphasized enough how important the timing issue is here regarding the forecast. The Euro model would not bring precipitation in until Sunday afternoon with the bulk of it Sunday night. Today’s Euro model run will be important in determining whether it has the timing issue correct. The NAM this winter has been better on timing so this does raise important caution flags regarding how all this turns out.

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